Or a Baltimore boosted by a federal Marshall Plan for cities, initiated by a new President and approved by Congress, and skillfully employed on the local level by an energetic new Mayor and Council, both also responsible for the efficient and fast distribution of the new COVID vaccine which gives people confidence to go out and about again?
Both futures seem possible. Peering into the future has become far more difficult under the regime of SARS-CoV2, especially now after it became clear that things won't be back to normal any time soon.
Many predictions about the future of cities are dire. More so, when the city is Baltimore. The Atlantic diagnosed "A Make or Break Moment for Cities" and predicted nothing less than "a reversal of the urban renaissance":
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| Empty JFX during Corona: The end of cities? |
The possible result is nothing less than the reversal of the “urban renaissance” that began roughly a generation ago. Renaissance is a freighted term, to be sure, and it elides as much as it describes, but some aspects of it are unarguable. After nearly four decades of capital flight, investment returned to neighborhoods that had been dismissed as unsalvageable. And so did people. In the 2000 census, Chicago posted its first population growth in 50 years; in 2010, Philadelphia did the same. Most spectacularly, New York City, which lost more than 800,000 residents during the 1970s, has welcomed an astonishing 1.4 million people since.On first blush it would appear plausible that the time of cities is over and suburbs are in again, if density, public transit, crowded bars, museums, concerts and sports events are out, and distance, open space, and working from home is in.
Cities are broke, office districts dormant, services cut to the bone. And wealthy white families will, in some number, move to the suburbs, sapping City Hall’s coffers when they go. Metropolises may get the gridlocked ’50s and the bankrupt ’70s all in six months. (Slate)The truth won't be quite as simple. Too often before have cities been declared dead and wound up to be better than ever before. Many cities overseas don't even ponder such dark thoughts but are gearing up for a gradual recovery. Closer to home, that the suburb isn't necessarily the victor is illustrated by the fact that Baltimore County has been hit just as hard as Baltimore City and that shiny Montgomery County is even worse off.
How hard will Baltimore City get hit? How tough will it be for the next mayor to get the city to open up again and get the books in order when income is braking off on so many fronts at once?
Too many City neighborhoods, spaces, businesses and start-ups in Baltimore always operated on the brink, even in better times. Too many people without work, too many failing schools, too much crime and also corruption. The large "black butterfly" areas of east and west Baltimore are known for their huge disparities in job access, health, homeownership, poverty levels and educational attainment. But clinging on for bare life also occurs in the "white L." Consider the problems of the Hilton Hotel to make a profit as a convention center hotel, the almost vacant pavilions at the Inner Harbor or the difficulties of the Baltimore Symphony, all testimony that Baltimore seems to be a city that is always on the cusp, even in boom times when other cities created sound cushions of resilience. Baltimore is always on the verge of a renaissance but never quite able to really get there. Now, when the going gets really bad worldwide, what will the global recession do to our city?
Baltimore tracked the trajectory of other post industrial cities, pivoting from smoke stacks to services, especially in education and medicine. Like successful cities, Baltimore invested on becoming a place of experience that attracts conventioneers, suburbanites and tourists alike. We have our occasional stars, rising like comets, Mr Paterakis, the baker, Mr Becker of Sylvan Learning, Mr Plank of Under Armor. But only Paterakis really had staying power and his company is still a power house and a job center. But overall, "made in Baltimore" has become more a slogan than a reality. The reputation of economic heroes isn't good in Baltimore. Maybe the future belongs to small, local “makers” again. OpenWorks crowd source mass production of face shields was a great start.
What made Baltimore attractive in recent decades was its quirkiness, its restaurant and food scene, its arts and music scene, its festivals, the ethnically diverse population, the rich architecture and the long history. Plus the Orioles and Ravens, of course. All of it gave Baltimore the authenticity that attracted young people to come to town, in spite of the many shortcomings. It also allowed people of different ethnic backgrounds to feel at home here, even when the city was far from providing any type of equity. But everything that relies on gathering of large groups of people, chance encounters and the bustle of a vibrant city is now the opposite of what distancing demands.
Restaurants
Looking at those areas of strength, they are all in peril, but nothing more than the restaurants. Probably nothing has offered Baltimore more urban flair than the many restaurants that have sprung up in all corners of the City, ranging from basic successors of corner speakeasies to hidden secrets which were written up in the most renowned national foodie magazines. Imagine boarded windows at all the places where lively restaurants once stood, and one can instantly imagine the loss. A wonderful example of how restaurants transformed a once desolate block is the block where the Charles art-house movie theater sits. Now there are no movies and no diners withstanding heat or cold at those outdoor tables.
With the prospect of not being able to reopen to full capacity for a long time to come, local restaurants, food spots, bars and hangouts are the hardest hit segment of all small business enterprises. City Cafe has already announced its demise after a 26 year run.
Culture
Baltimore's Symphony Orchestra was legendary. As recently as in 2018 it performed a concert devoted to the American composer Leonard Bernstein at the world famous Royal Albert Hall in London. But as everybody knows. the BSO was on the brink of disappearance before the virus hit and little has been heard since then. The Meyerhoff symphony hall is large, it isn't always fully sold out and coughing is laways unwelcome there. Maybe it can open with social distancing rules in place. In 2021 Marin Alsop will step down as music director. The BSO may not find a new director in its current condition. But small clubs, music bars and venues that thrive on the vibe of a crowded small space won't open any time soon. Artscape is unlikely to happen, nor any of the parades and festivals that make Baltimore so special. (For a detailed report on how cultural institutions are hit, see this SUN article).
Offices
For decades Baltimore has suffered from large corporations being bought out and moving their headquarters to other cities. Additionally new office locations close to the water at Hrabor East or Harbor Point have cannibalized demand in downtown. in the age of cloud files and virtual meetings the office itself has experienced a transformation, generally with a reduced demand for space per person. The pandemic will likely accelerate the trends away from one person=one cubicle. Social distancing will require that half the staff continues to work from home to reduce crowing in lobbies, elevators and office floors. As result Baltimore will see even fewer people in the streets and places that rely on office workers buying things or eating lunch out will suffer. Parking garages will remain half empty and the city parking tax revenue will shrink along with the fines from illegal parking. It is unlikely that any shovel will go into the ground for new office buildings any time soon.
Transportation
Baltimore's streets won't stay as empty as it was at the height of the lockdown, but the need for distance will require a new distribution of space. In part that may match up with the "complete streets" agenda of those who always wanted to give pedestrians and bicycles more space. But the push for increased transit usage has become much more difficult. It is way easier to keep distant in a car than in a bus or train. As a result, the existing inequities in mobility will become even worse. Corona has already illustrated the injustice of essential workers being forced into crowded buses while the more privileged can work from home but have a car in the driveway, just in case. There is no easy solution for safe transit travel in a pandemic. likely the bias Maryland's governor has for highways will further marginalize transit.
Education
A battle about education funding is already brewing after the governor vetoed the Kirwin funding bill. Baltimore is more than anyone else in Maryland dependent on improved education as a tool to improve the chances of Baltimore's youth. In the City youth needs transit to get to school, making the question of how schools can be safely operated even more difficult. Children of families with a low emphasis on education which frequently are poor have suffered the most from the closed schools. As in so many areas, the virus is exacerbating the existing disparities and that will continue to reverberate, even when schools begin to operate normally again.
Development and demographics
In the mayoral debates there is agreement that Baltimore has to stop the shrinkage of its population. But our mayoral candidates differ in what solution they suggest: Attracting new residents (Miller, Vignarajah) or by keeping existing residents here (Dixon). This isn't just a mathematical game, the two approaches of stabilizing the size of the city require different sets of action, even if in reality, whoever gets elected, will probably employ some kind of mixed strategy, partly attracting new residents and partly keeping existing ones. The already noted Atlantic article observes correctly:
Fiscal health
US cities, especially former industrial legacy cities have suffered from a lack of money for decades resulting in shortchanged maintenance of schools, pipes, roads and transit. This will become much worse when so much revenue has broken off from a economy running in some kind of suspense. Cities can't pull themselves out on their bootstraps. They do need a big federal bail-out much more urgently than airlines or the auto industry. Or better, they should have a higher priority, because there can't be a healthy America when half of its cities are bankrupt. Funding cities to recover requires a different mindset in the White House, to say the least. In the end, bringing cities back to life and prosperity has no alternative, especially if one considers climate change and the fact that cities have a much smaller carbon footprint than suburbs. To quote the Atlantic once more:
The rays of hope
Popular believe has it that there is always opportunity in crisis. We will see. It could be that Made in the USA or Made in Baltimore will get a boost from the insight that supply chains become a problem when they get too complicated. Urban farming, farmers markets and non-meat food options could see stronger demand, Baltimore with its many fallow lands could build its already strong leadership in the arena further out.
It could be that people having been conditioned to the 6' distance will yearn for urbanity, density and proximity once the threat of this virus has subsided and that bars, shared office spaces and food halls will thrive again along with ethnic festivals and crowded sports arenas. The trend towards outdoor dining will become stronger, because managing aersols there will be much easier than with indoor AC.
It could be that loyalty to local businesses gains strength and that it is the big chains which cannot withstand the pressure of several months without income while small owners power through it. JC Penny went bust, department stores have had a hard time for a while. It could be that the slow lock-down period with some of the introspection that came with it, has built up a strong demand for art and cultural expression so that galleries, museums and will thrive.
It could be that Tourism will shun cruise ships and far-flung places for a while in favor of a weekend in an interesting city.
COVID has brought into sharp focus what doesn't work in America and in Maryland. It is a great time that Baltimore finally claims the leading role it needs to play in this state. We shouldn't vote for a Mayor who is satisfied with anything less than that.
Klaus Philipsen, FAIA
See also on my blog:
Too many City neighborhoods, spaces, businesses and start-ups in Baltimore always operated on the brink, even in better times. Too many people without work, too many failing schools, too much crime and also corruption. The large "black butterfly" areas of east and west Baltimore are known for their huge disparities in job access, health, homeownership, poverty levels and educational attainment. But clinging on for bare life also occurs in the "white L." Consider the problems of the Hilton Hotel to make a profit as a convention center hotel, the almost vacant pavilions at the Inner Harbor or the difficulties of the Baltimore Symphony, all testimony that Baltimore seems to be a city that is always on the cusp, even in boom times when other cities created sound cushions of resilience. Baltimore is always on the verge of a renaissance but never quite able to really get there. Now, when the going gets really bad worldwide, what will the global recession do to our city?
 |
| Do people like to work from home? |
Baltimore tracked the trajectory of other post industrial cities, pivoting from smoke stacks to services, especially in education and medicine. Like successful cities, Baltimore invested on becoming a place of experience that attracts conventioneers, suburbanites and tourists alike. We have our occasional stars, rising like comets, Mr Paterakis, the baker, Mr Becker of Sylvan Learning, Mr Plank of Under Armor. But only Paterakis really had staying power and his company is still a power house and a job center. But overall, "made in Baltimore" has become more a slogan than a reality. The reputation of economic heroes isn't good in Baltimore. Maybe the future belongs to small, local “makers” again. OpenWorks crowd source mass production of face shields was a great start.
What made Baltimore attractive in recent decades was its quirkiness, its restaurant and food scene, its arts and music scene, its festivals, the ethnically diverse population, the rich architecture and the long history. Plus the Orioles and Ravens, of course. All of it gave Baltimore the authenticity that attracted young people to come to town, in spite of the many shortcomings. It also allowed people of different ethnic backgrounds to feel at home here, even when the city was far from providing any type of equity. But everything that relies on gathering of large groups of people, chance encounters and the bustle of a vibrant city is now the opposite of what distancing demands.
Restaurants
Looking at those areas of strength, they are all in peril, but nothing more than the restaurants. Probably nothing has offered Baltimore more urban flair than the many restaurants that have sprung up in all corners of the City, ranging from basic successors of corner speakeasies to hidden secrets which were written up in the most renowned national foodie magazines. Imagine boarded windows at all the places where lively restaurants once stood, and one can instantly imagine the loss. A wonderful example of how restaurants transformed a once desolate block is the block where the Charles art-house movie theater sits. Now there are no movies and no diners withstanding heat or cold at those outdoor tables.
 |
| Masked and waiting for curbside pick-up |
With the prospect of not being able to reopen to full capacity for a long time to come, local restaurants, food spots, bars and hangouts are the hardest hit segment of all small business enterprises. City Cafe has already announced its demise after a 26 year run.
"In a lot of ways, our problems in the restaurant business are only just beginning," he said. "When you reopen and you have mandated capacity at 50% or less, and you also are dealing with the public's general fear of coming out, the restaurants are going to be breaking even and after all this time you need to be turning a profit." (Gino Cardinale to the BBJ)The much liked space was once before near the breaking point, when one of its founding partners was murdered on Baltimore's rough streets in 2001. Joe Square in Station North is rumored to be next. The Alexander Brown restaurant on Redwood Street closed as well. The BBJ reported:
The pandemic spelled the end for the high-end restaurant in the heart of downtown Baltimore, which opened 15 months ago in a historic building that was once home to investment bank Alex. Brown & Sons. But even before the outbreak, the Alexander Brown suffered from a location with few visitors, little residential traffic and a challenging parking situation, partner Blake Casper said in an interview Friday. The pandemic spelled the end for the high-end restaurant in the heart of downtown Baltimore, which opened 15 months ago in a historic building that was once home to investment bank Alex. Brown & Sons. But even before the outbreak, the Alexander Brown suffered from a location with few visitors, little residential traffic and a challenging parking situation, partner Blake Casper said in an interview Friday. (BBJ)The list will certainly grow, considering that restaurants have struggled since the unrest of 2015 to gain customers back. There were too many restaurants competing over a too limited base of guests. Just ask Steven Rivelis how hard it was to keep the Elephant on Charles Street going until he couldn't hold on to it any longer. This was quite a while before COVID. Or ask the restaurants which have tried to make it work in Baltimore's Westside around the Hippodrome and the Everyman Theater. It has been a struggle and several failed there over the years. How can they survive now with the event venues shuttered indefinitely and the lunchtime crowd even thinner than it has been before. Or think of the food halls such as R-House and Mount Vernon Market which were conceived as heavens for restaurant start-ups. Or the new Broadway Market, how will it survive without tourists? All of Fells Point, really?
Culture
Baltimore's Symphony Orchestra was legendary. As recently as in 2018 it performed a concert devoted to the American composer Leonard Bernstein at the world famous Royal Albert Hall in London. But as everybody knows. the BSO was on the brink of disappearance before the virus hit and little has been heard since then. The Meyerhoff symphony hall is large, it isn't always fully sold out and coughing is laways unwelcome there. Maybe it can open with social distancing rules in place. In 2021 Marin Alsop will step down as music director. The BSO may not find a new director in its current condition. But small clubs, music bars and venues that thrive on the vibe of a crowded small space won't open any time soon. Artscape is unlikely to happen, nor any of the parades and festivals that make Baltimore so special. (For a detailed report on how cultural institutions are hit, see this SUN article).
 |
| Councilman Pinkett handing out masks in West Baltimore (Photo: Philipsen) |
Offices
For decades Baltimore has suffered from large corporations being bought out and moving their headquarters to other cities. Additionally new office locations close to the water at Hrabor East or Harbor Point have cannibalized demand in downtown. in the age of cloud files and virtual meetings the office itself has experienced a transformation, generally with a reduced demand for space per person. The pandemic will likely accelerate the trends away from one person=one cubicle. Social distancing will require that half the staff continues to work from home to reduce crowing in lobbies, elevators and office floors. As result Baltimore will see even fewer people in the streets and places that rely on office workers buying things or eating lunch out will suffer. Parking garages will remain half empty and the city parking tax revenue will shrink along with the fines from illegal parking. It is unlikely that any shovel will go into the ground for new office buildings any time soon.
Transportation
Baltimore's streets won't stay as empty as it was at the height of the lockdown, but the need for distance will require a new distribution of space. In part that may match up with the "complete streets" agenda of those who always wanted to give pedestrians and bicycles more space. But the push for increased transit usage has become much more difficult. It is way easier to keep distant in a car than in a bus or train. As a result, the existing inequities in mobility will become even worse. Corona has already illustrated the injustice of essential workers being forced into crowded buses while the more privileged can work from home but have a car in the driveway, just in case. There is no easy solution for safe transit travel in a pandemic. likely the bias Maryland's governor has for highways will further marginalize transit.
Education
A battle about education funding is already brewing after the governor vetoed the Kirwin funding bill. Baltimore is more than anyone else in Maryland dependent on improved education as a tool to improve the chances of Baltimore's youth. In the City youth needs transit to get to school, making the question of how schools can be safely operated even more difficult. Children of families with a low emphasis on education which frequently are poor have suffered the most from the closed schools. As in so many areas, the virus is exacerbating the existing disparities and that will continue to reverberate, even when schools begin to operate normally again.
 |
| Operation Cease Fire: No less killing in the pandemic |
Development and demographics
In the mayoral debates there is agreement that Baltimore has to stop the shrinkage of its population. But our mayoral candidates differ in what solution they suggest: Attracting new residents (Miller, Vignarajah) or by keeping existing residents here (Dixon). This isn't just a mathematical game, the two approaches of stabilizing the size of the city require different sets of action, even if in reality, whoever gets elected, will probably employ some kind of mixed strategy, partly attracting new residents and partly keeping existing ones. The already noted Atlantic article observes correctly:
The first, if not most obvious, item on such a list would be to expand immigration and refugee resettlement. American cities have rarely expanded as a result of “natural” population growth. The number of people who leave cities has usually eclipsed the number born in them. In other words, cities have always relied on newcomers to maintain their vitality. That was true a century ago, and it remains true today. As scholars have now documented, before the hipsters and kale chips and artisanal beer arrived in American cities, immigrants played a central role in the urban renaissance of the past generation.In spite of the vast amounts of vacant houses, there remains a shortage of affordable quality housing. Most economists agree, that multi-familiy housing will continue to see demand and financing, especially if it is affordable. Just like during the financial crisis, many projects in the pipeline may pivot from upscale to affordable, desirable from a needs perspective but not as good for the city's tax base. Big fancy projects such as Port Covington will likely slow even further than they already did before COVID hit. Large redevelopment areas such as the Uplands had been stalled for decades, the new economic crisis will make their completion even less likely.
Fiscal health
US cities, especially former industrial legacy cities have suffered from a lack of money for decades resulting in shortchanged maintenance of schools, pipes, roads and transit. This will become much worse when so much revenue has broken off from a economy running in some kind of suspense. Cities can't pull themselves out on their bootstraps. They do need a big federal bail-out much more urgently than airlines or the auto industry. Or better, they should have a higher priority, because there can't be a healthy America when half of its cities are bankrupt. Funding cities to recover requires a different mindset in the White House, to say the least. In the end, bringing cities back to life and prosperity has no alternative, especially if one considers climate change and the fact that cities have a much smaller carbon footprint than suburbs. To quote the Atlantic once more:
One can imagine that the COVID-19 pandemic will leave a cityscape of closed businesses and empty storefronts and people who can no longer afford housing. Federal intervention could help ensure that large corporations and real-estate conglomerates don’t swoop in to fill every available void. In fact, the pandemic presents an opportunity to rewrite banking policies so that they reward small rather than big, and to initiate housing programs that expand opportunities for working- and middle-class people, reversing some of the trends that have made it harder for people to afford the neighborhoods they live in.I would add that the country needs to levy a Corona solidarity tax for those who earn over a certain level of income and can easily afford such a contribution.
The rays of hope
Popular believe has it that there is always opportunity in crisis. We will see. It could be that Made in the USA or Made in Baltimore will get a boost from the insight that supply chains become a problem when they get too complicated. Urban farming, farmers markets and non-meat food options could see stronger demand, Baltimore with its many fallow lands could build its already strong leadership in the arena further out.
It could be that people having been conditioned to the 6' distance will yearn for urbanity, density and proximity once the threat of this virus has subsided and that bars, shared office spaces and food halls will thrive again along with ethnic festivals and crowded sports arenas. The trend towards outdoor dining will become stronger, because managing aersols there will be much easier than with indoor AC.
It could be that loyalty to local businesses gains strength and that it is the big chains which cannot withstand the pressure of several months without income while small owners power through it. JC Penny went bust, department stores have had a hard time for a while. It could be that the slow lock-down period with some of the introspection that came with it, has built up a strong demand for art and cultural expression so that galleries, museums and will thrive.
It could be that Tourism will shun cruise ships and far-flung places for a while in favor of a weekend in an interesting city.
COVID has brought into sharp focus what doesn't work in America and in Maryland. It is a great time that Baltimore finally claims the leading role it needs to play in this state. We shouldn't vote for a Mayor who is satisfied with anything less than that.
Klaus Philipsen, FAIA
See also on my blog:
