The high stakes for the new Regional Transit Plan

The last regional transit plan was the 2002 Baltimore Rail Plan which suggested a color coded rail network much like the one in DC with priority for an east west line which became the doomed Red Line project.

Chicago 2018-23 regional transit plan

Many think that a flawed plan led to the the failure of the Red Line to pass muster with the current governor and proffer a bunch of deficits ranging from that the plan was limited to rail to that it was promoted by a relatively small group of regional leaders and never had full scale community support.

While this is a bit like blaming the victim for the crime, the purpose of this article isn't to re-litigate the Red Line and its genesis but to discuss what the new regional transit plan should look like which is required by House Bill 372 which passed last year. In the convoluted language of those type bills the following is legislated:

On or before October 1, 2020, the administration shall, in consultation with [a newly to be created Commission]  and the Baltimore metropolitan council, prepare a central Maryland regional transit plan to meet the transit needs of the core service area.

(c) the central Maryland regional transit plan shall:(1) define goals for outcomes to be achieved through the provision of public transportation;(2) in order to best achieve the goals defined in item (1) of this subsection, identify options for:(i) improvements to existing transportation assets;(ii) improvements to leverage non–administration transportation options available to public transportation; and(iii) corridors for new public transportation assets;(3) prioritize corridors for planning of new public transportation assets; (4) Evaluate the plan’s consistency with local land use and transportation plans and the Maryland transportation plan and identify opportunities for achieving greater consistency; (5) be reviewed, revised, and updated at least every 5 years; and (6) address a 30–year 25–year time frame. 

The 2002 Regional rail plan

The bill also mandates the formation of a new Central Maryland Regional Transit Plan Commission and is specific about who will be on the Commission and what its purpose is. Again in the original language of the bill:

(1) there is a Central Maryland Regional Transit Plan Commission.
(2) the commission consists of the following members:
(i) the county executive of Anne Arundel county, or the county executive’s designee;
(ii) the mayor of Baltimore city, or the mayor’s designee;
(iii) the county executive of Baltimore county, or the county executive’s designee; and
(iv) the county executive of Harford county, or the county executive’s designee;
(v) the county executive of Howard county, or the county executive’s designee;
(vi) one representative from a central Maryland business or transportation organization, appointed by the president of the senate;
(vii) one representative from a central Maryland business or transportation organization, appointed by the speaker of the house; and
(iv) (viii) the following individuals appointed by the governor:
1.      Three representatives one representative from a central maryland business organizations organization;
One representative from a citizen advisory committee the citizen advisory council;
3. One representative from a disabled riders group; and
4. One representative from the MARC riders advisory council.
(3) the commission shall participate in the development of:
(i) a strategy for meaningful public involvement in the central Maryland regional transit plan; and
1.      (ii) the goals for outcomes of the central Maryland regional transit plan. 

In spite of all this language, the bill  really leaves it  wide open how the required plan would address the regions transit needs. Transit advocates, legislators and the MTA waited until the end of this summer to gear up for the plan which has a deadline of Oct 1, 2020. Since it is the "administration" which is charged to prepare the plan "in consultation", it will be MTA's plan.

A new way of thinking about transit

This fall the transit agency hired five consulting teams through a request for proposals for an "open end" planning contract which allows any type planning assignment. However, for evaluation the consultants were asked to describe how they would develop a regional plan and that will be the first assignment. The MTA is already engaged in an up-front listening tour and appears to be ahead of transit advocates who have not yet come up with a formal set of ideas for the plan and its approach.

From a supply model to a demand model

For the plan to take shape, many decision have to be made early on. Since 2002 ideas about how transit plans look have developed. Back then a plan mostly consisted in drawing lines on a map and describing in which order the additional routes should be constructed ("supply model"). Today, transit plans aim for much more comprehensive concepts described as mobility and access. Transportation has since emerged as central to economic development, opportunity and equity. In other words, cutting edge plans are about people and social issues as much as about transit operations ("Demand model").

Goals from the New Orleans transit plan 

The 2015 regional Opportunity Collaborative's report made it very clear, that  key to opportunity and equity is the ease of travel between live and work. Unfortunately, the way the region shaped up, poor people live clustered in inner city neighborhoods and entry level jobs are scattered far out in the regional periphery such as the BWI airport, Dundalk, Perryman Island or Sparrows Point (Tradepoint Atlantic).  The result: People without a car and without a college degree have terribly long commutes because the urban job centers in downtown Baltimore and Harbor East have long become bastions of finance, medicine and education with only a scattering of entry level jobs. Beyond this job-housing mismatch modern mobility needs go far beyond work-trips. Just as roads are busy almost all day in all directions, transit can no longer just serve work trips, is no longer directional in the traditional way (to work into the city and out after work) and all purpose trips make up a large share of transit rides.

How equity and opportunity would shape the plan

There are three core take-aways that come from a focus on people, economy, and equity in order to create opportunity. They will have to shape the new transit plan:

• the plan needs to address how people get from door to door, i.e. the plan has to look not only at transit but at transportation in the broadest sense and include last mile mobility, be it walking, a shuttle, a ride share or even biking or taking a scooter.
• the plan needs to also address land use. Not even the best transit  can chase all the jobs in the far corners of the region. Instead, good opportunity and good access requires that jobs locate where transit is.
• the plan needs to optimize existing assets. It cannot simply rely on additional lines to make up for the shortcomings of the existing systems. Instead, what is already on the ground has to be optimized to perform on a top level. This, too includes better land use around existing stations. 

As a recent study by a DW Rowlands published in the greater Greater Washington online publication shows that the problem isn't that poor people always have poor access to transit. In fact, the high frequency lines of MTA's rail and bus service are usually quite accessible to people who live in areas of low property values (the metric the study used). The problem is that the services and jobs people in the dis-invested areas seek are far from where they live and often not accessible with a single transit trip. Once transfers are needed, transit trip times quickly exceed the 45 minutes which are usually considered the longest acceptable commute.

Autonomous last mile shuttle at German rail station

A new transit plan which looks at land use, last mile modes, existing and new transit and effective operations is a far more complicated undertaking than the traditional effort of drawing additional lines on a map.

How future trends should shape the plan

But even this isn't enough. The plan, which by law must have a 30 year horizo,n has to take into account seismic shifts in technology and demographics which will radically alter the transit landscape. The most dramatic shifts will likely come in these areas:

• The workplace: Robotics will change the workplace  After the industrial revolution replaced farm work with manufacturing which was then largely replaced by the service industry many jobs in the service industry will soon be replaced by robots and artificial intelligence.  \
• Transportation: Robotics will also change transportation and transit. It isn't clear whether autonomous cars will take away riders from transit or whether autonomous transit vehicles will expand the reach of transit. Much will depend on national, state, regional and local policies which manage how those robot cars, vans, trucks and buses can be dispatched and whether the sharing economy (ride share, car share, bike share etc.) will continue to expand.

  

  Access, housing and economic development make good livable communities

• Demographics: Population trends will shift will drastically whom transit serves. An increase in  older population with its specific demands on land use and transportation (such as the increase in demand for the MTA Mobility van service) will support transit usage. Meanwhile the well educated younger population, which is essential for any region to compete, continues to trend towards  mixed-use urban settings which much of our suburban region doesn't offer, also potentially a supporter of transit usage
• Climate change: Awareness of the perils of carbon emissions will increase exponentially with the increased threats from stronger storms and rising sea-levels. Transportation is a major emitter of carbon and will have to respond. Solving the technology and the demographic challenge embeds an opportunity for making mobility much more sustainable. 

Transportation options

The plan as an opportunity

A 30 year transit plan without consideration of the above factors would be shortsighted and fatal. Indeed, the transit plan is a perfect opportunity for shaping the future in a comprehensive way, instead of simply reacting to what would happen by default.  Any region which doesn't pay attention to the need of providing a high quality of life environment with excellent access and mobility for as many of its residents as possible, is going to be doomed and most certainly a looser in the global competition for talent and prosperity. 

The stakes for the new plan are high. It is almost certain that the Hogan administration and a large part of the population which just re-elected the Governor don't see it that way and much rather treat this transit plan as an imposed chore not of their own making. Hogan's preference for road construction is well established.  It will depend on the community and the transit advocates to ensure that the plan responds to the enormous challenges instead of taking the easy way out.  

Klaus Philipsen, FAIA