Irma, Harvey and Baltimore

With marvelous blue skies over Baltimore and the mayors of Miami and Tampa reporting how lucky their cities were to have dodged the full scale calamity that had been predicted for them, many Marylanders will feel not only a little less guilty for enjoying a weekend in such calm but also that it is about time to talk about something else than hurricanes.

Miami in Irma (Washington Post)

But there is too much to learn from these storms to just go back to business as usual. About ourselves, politics, psychology, urban design, transportation, construction. Those lessons can't go to waste. Here in random order a stream of consciousness about what possible insights there may be:

Nature and weather is far from being conquered. In fact humans' quest of conquering nature has made the attacks more furious. Many have observed the irony that the two recent storms hit particularly those states which are particularly adverse to government and to the idea of man-made climate change. This, of course, doesn't stop those governors from applying for federal disaster declarations and billions of assistance so they can recreate an indefensible status. 

Flooding after Irma in norther Haiti

When it comes to weather, American media depend on nature to give them a boost and the public caught in some type of rubbernecking stupor laps it up. So the TV channels spread more fear than hard information. There is probably little hope for more factual reporting and less speculation, no matter how often weather predictions were overblown. All day on Sunday the byline of the storm was "deadly" as if the media were hoping for death to occur even when no storm deaths had been reported all day aside from a head-on car crash which may have been unrelated. (There is still little news from the Florida Keys were reportedly 10,000 people remained in spite of the mandatory evacuation order). 

Downtown Tampa on a calm evening earlier this year  (Photo: Philipsen)

Downtown Baltimore after Sandy

In spite of the global reach of the information age, reporting in the US remains parochial, even when real terrible disaster has occurred on other shores. The prospect of Irma going to hit the mainland US entirely eclipsed substantial reporting about those islands that were really devastated. It takes foreign newscasts to assemble real information about the Antilles or Carribean. Cuba, in fact, sapped the strength off Irma, a fact that may have saved Florida, but there is little news about conditions in Cuba, an island that usually fares better than many of its neighbors thanks to being pretty well organized.  Irma brought into full focus the different ways how countries tick. The most bizarre aspect maybe the vestiges of colonialism  with France, the United Kingdom, Holland and the US each still in charge of a one or several of these small islands in the path of Irma. None are better off thanks to their rich "masters" but remain poor and dysfunctional as a result of a exploitative colonial history no matter which imperial power was and is in charge.

The most complicated lesson is probably about evacuation. Evacuating 7 million people from large swaths of an entire state is as hard as it is useless, even if many days are available to attempt it. Wholesale evacuation isn't based on actual risk analysis. There is no clear system in place for what evacuation means for individuals. Someone who doesn't have a car to drive off with or no place to go to has no clearly pre-defined pathways of escape. The lack of public transportation was already criticized during Katrina and it wasn't all that much better with Harvey and Irma. One should think that one could have wrestled up a series of Amtrak trains going north for those without cars, especially if only those from actual risk zones would be evacuated. But there is no convincing risk-benefit analysis available with maps that reliably show wind and floor risk zones. The discussions about Houston have shown the pros and cons of mass evacuation this with strong arguments on both sides. 

Anti-government ideology ("the individual knows best") and top down imperatives such as curfews and mandatory evacuations get tangled in a messy knot. Shelters depend largely on non-governmental agencies to run and the poor are often left out of the equation, even though it would be much less effort to organize transportation, supplies and medications before the storm hits than afterwards. It seems that this is an area where much improvement is possible. 

Each person in each zone should know precisely where to head when an evacuation is ordered and have an option to get to the designated place. Even in Florida where the whole State is flat and low, it shouldn't be necessary to have to drive hundreds of miles to reach a safe spot. Still, owning a car which can't travel further than 250 miles on one tank of gas is useless and sheds a light on what gas guzzlers still exist. The principle of rugged individualism which translates to"everyone fend for himself" has created remarkable resourcefulness but is not sufficient as the sole preparation. It is totally insufficient once a disaster has struck, no matter how inspiring the "Texas navy" was. Individual solidarity in action is wonderful and necessary but well-practiced emergency plans, drills supported by robust equipment and resources are essential to really protect large populations.

Manatee County (Anna Maria Island)
emergency shelters the day before Irma

Revised building codes requiring hurricane straps and other fortifications such as elevated streets seem to be working to the extent of a CAT 3 storm. No doubt Miami, Naples and Tampa largely withstood those horrendous 100mph winds in part because of those new standards. But what if the winds really would top 140mph or more, as Irma unleashed further east? What if storm surges and rising sea levels salinate Florida's drinking water aquifer for good?

Maybe the contrast of Maryland's beautiful cool and sunny early fall day with the fury of the hurricane makes some folks here think twice about retiring in the sunshine state. Some less growth down there would definitely help. A blizzard here seems more benign a risk than a cyclone there.

However, Houston and Tampa illustrate how utterly unprepared Baltimore would be, if heavy rainstorms or hurricane force winds would hit here, not entirely impossible, after all. A storm-surge in the Chesapeake is quite a real possibility. 

After Sandy Baltimore has started good sustainability and resilience efforts; they need to be pushed forward under the Pugh administration. After Baltimore mostly dodged hurricane Sandyand instead hitting the New York area hardest, then NYC mayor Bloomberg has crafted a 10 year response plan with 257 resiliency projects. His successor deBlasio updated it. Baltimore also prepared a Disaster Preparedness Plan (DP3 plan) and a Climate Action Plan. but in recent years and after the unrest, a lot of attention has shifted to equity. Equity is, indeed, an important part of resilience but it isn't the only issue. The position of a Climate and Resilience Planner has been open since June and has recently been advertised.

Dune replanting at Breezy Point, Queens 1 year after Sandy (Photo: NYT)

While Katrina, Harvey and Irma have shown that storms are not equal opportunity threats, the discussion of equity should not become unmoored from the threat that nature presents and which caused the resilience plan in the first place. The storms must be a reminder for all cities in some type of harm's way to become better prepared.
Klaus Phipsen, FAIA

Learning from Harvey

other articles from my blogs:

Water-the common-element-of-disaster
Sea-levels-rise-managed-retreat-or stand your ground?
Are-cities-resilient-enough-to-deal with storms of the century?