What a new study tells us about the trajectory of Baltimore Neighborhoods

Before the current topic of public health wiped every other topic off the radar screen, one of Baltimore's favorite subjects of discussion was how Baltimore's neighborhoods are doing. The five year anniversary of the Freddie Grey unrest is a good time to revisit the question.

Was there revival or gentrification or was there mostly a steady spread of decay? Depending on one's own daily experience, residents would attest to the one or the other.  One side would see flourishing neighborhoods with restaurants, bars, cafes and sprouting roof decks where a few years back only modest narrow formstone worker houses dominated the scene. The others pointed to once stately brownstones going to waste, surrounded by other vacant buildings, weeds, to corner stores selling liquor through plexiglass dividers.  Both impressions were part of the same reality that is Baltimore. From those close up views, it is hard to gain a larger perspective.

Revitalization and investment on Greenmount Ave (photo: Philipsen)

Now a study by Alan Mallach, senior fellow at the Center for Community Progress, released by the Abell Foundation this month, aims to shed light on what is going on, zip code by zip code, but set into the context of a citywide scale. The trends the report shows are based on a broad set of data collected between 2000- and 2017. From Abell's website:

This Abell Report mines data from 2000 to 2017 to better understand how the racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic composition of Baltimore's neighborhoods have changed.

Even though the pandemic will upend everything, a careful study of what happened in those seventeen years is in order to prepare for what is to come, especially now.

Middle neighborhoods in decline

One thing is clear: On balance, Baltimore has lost population between in those seventeen years, not as drastically as in the decade before, but significant losses of  over 27,000 residents, or 4% of its population, according to  census estimates, losses that have brought Baltimore already below the 600,000 mark, the smallest population in a century.

But contrary to popular believe, the matter isn't simply one of people packing up and leaving to greener pastures, usually in the surrounding suburbs. The reality is that people also move to Baltimore. While, on balance more people move out than in, the taxes that Baltimore collected have gone up in recent years.  This means that the ones moving in were more affluent than those moving out. This wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, given the city's high poverty rate and below state  median income rate. But as almost everything in Baltimore, the in and out migration is also a matter mired in race. Or as the Abell Report put it:

Population gains and losses (red is loss, blue is gain)

Since 2000, black neighborhoods have been much more likely to decline economically, and white neighborhoods have been more likely to rise.[..] The greatest loss of black population in Baltimore is coming from predominately black low- and moderate-income neighborhoods (median income below citywide median, or below $47,000 in 2017). Since 2000, these neighborhoods have lost over 45,000 people, or roughly 20% of their total population. [..]

Baltimore has seen solid economic growth since 2000. The city has added nearly 20,000 jobs. Household incomes in Baltimore have grown at a rate nearly 50% greater than the national rate over that period; as a result, Baltimore’s median household income has risen from 72% to 81% of the national median. Income growth, however, has been concentrated among white households, whose incomes have grown at more than double the rate of black households 

 The common narrative reflecting these trends is that affluent white people are displacing poor black people. The word used in this context: gentrification. But the reality is, once again, more complicated. Gentrification does not occur uniformly in neighborhoods across the city, in fact, it rarely occurs in poor black neighborhoods at all. As a result, displacement in the gentrifying communities in Baltimore (Defined as: (1) increase in household incomes; (2) increase
in sales prices; and (3) increase in educational attainment) occurs predominantly on the backs of poor white residents. Again the Abell Report:

Thriving Remington. Stable old houses and new
development (Photo Philipsen)

For every loss of a black household in a gentrifying area, there was a net loss of more than five low-income white households, whether as a result of households moving elsewhere, mortality, or other reasons.

Baltimore's loss of population in Middle Neighborhoods is a troubling sign of the slow degradation of the American middle class that is going on across the nation. There is nationawide a stronger and stronger bifurcation of society with very many poor people at the bottom and fewer and fewer people in the middle, with a few super rich at the top.  The report says about this problem:

Foremost, in our opinion, is the challenge of reversing the decline of the city’s struggling largely black moderate- and middle-income neighborhoods. This is both a physical and an economic problem. [...]This calls for a determined effort to improve the quality of life in these neighborhoods—a term that encompasses physical environment, public safety, quality education, and more. This means not only making them better places for everyone whatever their income and education, but also turning them into places where people who have the means to choose among neighborhoods, and can afford to move either to other parts of the city or its suburbs, will choose to stay or move into them.

Continued abandonment in West Baltimore
(Photo Philipsen)

The good news is, that Planning Director Chris Ryer has his eyes firmly set on those "middle neighborhoods" and the aim to improve quality of life there. In a 2019 interview with the American Planning Association he said in response to the question what the  the Planning Department’s approach to community development is:

It’s what we would call a “middle neighborhood strategy”: neighborhoods that are not wealthy, not in good shape, but not highly distressed. Fifty percent of Baltimore’s population live in these middle neighborhoods —  not highly distressed, but not highly successful. They could go either way. This is where the community development world plays now, because they don't typically have the resources for the distressed neighborhoods. We know in middle neighborhoods, our target areas, there are certain corridors that matter a lot: Greenmount Avenue in Waverly or Pennsylvania Avenue or any arterial in middle neighborhoods. They’re typically a mixture of residential and commercial, one of which is not really functioning in the market. (Chris Ryer, Planning Director)

The "middle neighborhoods" Ryer notes may not be the same Mallach describes as "struggling largely black moderate- and middle-income neighborhoods."  Baltimore's neighborhood policies have long oscillated from need based strategies (Mayor Schmoke targeting Sandtown in the 1990s) to "working from strength" (Mayor O'Malley). The cities latest targeted investment zones try a middle ground by working from anchor institutions and an equity perspective. Mallach's report may provide fuel for the strength versus need debate once again.

The Abell analysis also looked at home prices and real estate values. Not surprisingly, these, too are deeply reflective of race and the history of institutional racism such as redlining. As has been discussed in this space before, the effects of redlining continue to this day. About 30% of all City census tracts fall into deeply segregated and mostly previously redlined neighborhoods. In the words of the report:

Moving up mostly in white neighborhoods

Price trends are strongly driven by the racial composition of the neighborhood. Three out of five largely white census tracts saw house prices increase by more than 50% in constant dollars, compared to two out of five racially mixed, and only one out of 10 largely black tracts. Conversely, house prices declined by 20% or more in nearly half of all predominately black tracts, compared to less than one out of 12 predominately white tracts. The median house in predominately black moderate-income neighborhoods lost nearly one-third of its value in constant dollars between 2000 and 2017.

Clearly, neighborhoods with depressed home values are not gentrifying, to the contrary, those are the communities with the biggest population losses. 60,000 residents left deeply distressed areas. About half of them found a home in some middle neighborhoods in Baltimore, especially in the northeast area of the city. The future of the low and moderate income black communities is very uncertain. As Mallach writes:

The upshot is that almost all of Baltimore’s largely black moderate-income neighborhoods, many of which were relatively healthy in 2000, are losing ground, and many are in crisis. Families continue to leave, and household incomes are in sharp decline, while the housing market is on the edge of market failure. While the median house value in these neighborhoods in 2000 was over 80% of the citywide median, it is now below 50%. The number of new buyers is far too low to absorb the supply of housing, the share of investor buyers is far above the citywide average, and vacant housing is becoming endemic in some areas. The future of these neighborhoods is one of the most difficult challenges faced by the city of Baltimore. (Mallach)

It is remarkable that successful revitalization is more prevalent on the east side than on the west side. This probably has to do with how anchor institutions are engaged, how suitable the housing stock is for middle or lower incomes, how much access to transit an area has and how much coordination there is between various non-profits and community organizations. The success of Barclay and Greenmount West is a reflection of all of that.

All slipping black zip codes (light blue) are on the west side.
Yellow is stable, dark blue moving up. Predominantly black
moderate-income neighborhoods account for roughly  75%
of the total loss in black HH in Balto.
                

  

   

The sheer scale of continued disinvestment sets Baltimore apart from cities where gentrification is a much bigger issue. There has been no sign whatsoever that traditionally black neighborhoods would have an influx of affluent buyers who displace existing residents. After the pandemic, it is likely that the divisions and pathologies of Baltimore neighborhoods will be further exacerbated unless the usual market mechanisms can be redirected beyond the fairly small interventions of the past that rarely showed systemic change.

Predictably, almost all the communities that the report describes as gentrifying are entirely located in what has become known as the White L (the spine of the Charles Street corridor and the leg of the waterfront). There is a slight drift towards the west, where Hampden and Remington gentrified from previously working class low and mid income (mostly white) neighborhoods. The report states:

Gentrification in Baltimore is dominated by a single demographic group—young, largely white millennials with college degrees. While they are not the only people moving into the city’s gentrifying tracts, they are the principal driving force of change. Gentrifying tracts have seen their share of college graduates more than triple, while 36% of their residents are aged 25 to 34—double the percentage in the rest of the city. [...]18, or two-thirds, of the 27 gentrifying tracts were predominately white in 2000, five were mixed, and four were predominately black. 

The shrinking black population of Baltimore

The report highlights one bright spot, the transformation of a distressed and disinvested predominantly black community into a healthier and better off community with far less vacant buildings and barely any displacement: Greenmount West and Barclay. The community saw a strong influx of whites, Hispanics and Asians with only a slight reduction in blacks. The secret is that many vacant buildings where rehabbed and filled and many new apartments were built that guaranteed affordability. The resulting diverse community promises to withstand economic downturns in a much more resilient way than a fully segregated community. (see also my past blog article about this area)

I asked Seema Iyer of the Neighborhood Indicators Alliance at the University of Baltimore about the study. After all, drilling down into neighborhoods via data is her everyday business.
She says: " to me it's a real clarion call that we need to focus on the needs of homeowners in those western neighborhood in particular". She draws the following conclusions from the Abell study:

income disparities are defined by race

1) all of the Black neighborhoods that moved downward are on the west side of town. The ones on the east all remained stable.
2) the northeast quadrant seems like a model for what other parts of town can learn from
3) and the gentrifying neighborhoods are all in the center and along the water. It's not just because they are attracting white population, but because they represent the best of urban amenities that the city has to offer. certainly one begets the other, but they are walkable, with lots of cultural amenities, connected to transit as well as highways, have lots of capital investment, etc. (Seema Iyer, Director of the Jacob France Institute and Research Assistant Professor)

A mixed race community on the uptick: Pigtown

Allan Mallach, the author of the Abell study concludes his report with these words:

I recognize the magnitude of the city’s task in addressing its neighborhood challenges. Although the city and its partners have accomplished a great deal in recent years, far more needs to be done. I hope that this analysis, which I believe is the first detailed, factually grounded analysis of the city’s neighborhood conditions and trends, will be a valuable resource in that effort

Baltimore was struggling long after the financial crisis and was the only east coast city that continued to loose population even during the last 12 years of economic recovery. The blow of the pandemic promises to be even stronger. Yet, it also presents an opportunity to calibrate and coordinate the many efforts better. The author may not be entirely right about his study being the first and only detailed factually grounded neighborhood study, but he would certainly be right that city policies to date have not been sufficiently grounded in data. Not that data wouldn't have been collected (they were ever since CitiStat), but they have never been culled and interpreted to devise a comprehensive focused strategy. It is precisely such a strategy that the new mayor needs to develop to pull all his departments and resources in the same direction. In a time of depleted resources that will be even more urgent.

The mayoral election can be a benchmark and begin of a much more evidence based and focused approach in Baltimore than was dominant between 2000 and 2017. Mallach's study provides plenty of food for such a strategy.

Klaus Philipsen. FAIA

all graphis from the Abell report unless otherwise noted

Citywide trends

Baltimore's gentrifying neighborhoods: What do people look for?

Buildings as friends: #1 Architect J. Kargon, MSU

“We shape our buildings, and afterwards, our buildings shape us.” 

Winston Churchill, House of Commons October 28, 1944

About this series:

Architecture is "background noise" for most, consisting of buildings at the periphery of our vision when we drive, of buildings which we enter for work without looking up, of places that keep us dry, warm or cool per our specifications for all stations of our life. In our home, at a place of worship or when we are ready to board a train or plane.

Even when we get sick, we will wind up in a building, architecture even less on our mind. But one never knows: My then 17 year old

Louis Kahn Yale art museum (see also below): A good friend currently closed

daughter looked up at the lay in ceiling and its fluorescents from a gurney when she was rolled from an ambulance into the hospital hallway in a medical emergency; she could not resist telling her architect father : "The architect did not think of that perspective, daddy, did he"? Adding: "it is ugly".

In fact, emergencies sharpen our senses for impressions we usually take for granted. The bird song, the rising sun, the beauty of the low sun grazing wads of fog hovering over the meadows,  the "face" of building, we wake up to these observations when we are dropped from our daily routines. We are rubbing our eyes and begin to look at the world like a newborn: in wonder. It is then, when we realize, a building can be a good friend and provide familiarity, comfort and protection.

Modern Americans spend more time inside than outside, an aspect that gives buildings heightened importance. In the age of celebrities, some buildings have taken on celebrity status, too: the Louvre in Paris has always been an attraction for its art, but it was Ian Pei's glass pyramid that gained celebrity status and provided the Louvre's iconic brand. The Sidney Opera is more famous for its building than its music. The New York and the Bilbao Guggenheim are known more for their iconic buildings than for the art they contain. Some celebrity buildings have received nicknames like the Gherkin in London for its shape.

We notice what we had when we loose it: WTC New York

The shock of 9-11 came in part from two iconic buildings having been wiped off New York's skyline. The absence of what many considered bland architecture made New Yorkers realize what they had meant for the skyline.

Right now, its not the buildings that are absent, but we are absent from them. Not being able to see them, we begin to miss them.

Naturally, architects have a special relationship to buildings. So now, when architects are struggling with keeping their projects or jobs going from make-shift home offices while also worrying like everyone else about their and their family health, I wondered whether the beauty of architecture can be comfort, and whether the experience of friendship with a building can be shared. Whether an attempt of describing the relationship to a building could be useful introspection in a time of a major reset of values with yet uncertain outcomes.

So I sent to my architect friends a fundamental question: Which building is your best friend? Which piece of architecture do you like most, which influenced you? I am hoping for a series of uplifting articles and images about the beauty of architecture and its importance too the human spirit in the sense that Vetruvius described over 2000 years ago:

Thus man, who, in addition to the senses which other animals enjoy in common with him, is gifted by nature with such powers of thought and understanding, that no subject is too difficult for his apprehension, and the brute creation are subject to him from his superiority of intellect, proceeded by degrees to a knowledge of the other arts and sciences, and passed from a savage state of life to one of civilization. (Vitruvius: De Architectura: Book II).

Cover of "De Architectura" Latin edition of the Vetruvius Books by Augustus Rode

The responses will be published here on this blog as they trickle in.

The first article came overnight from Morgan University architecture professor Jeremy Kargon who sent his homage of the Louis Kahn designed Yale Center for British Art Publications, a building on the campus of his alma mater, the Yale University in New Haven, CT.

The building was completed  after Kahn’s unexpected death at Penn Station in New York in 1974, 23 years after its neighbor, The Yale University Art Gallery was finished. It is an icon of modern architecture and was refurbished in 2016:

Library Court: All images courtesy of Yale Center for British Art
except as noted

Jeremy Kargon:

The Yale Center for British Art (1977)
New Haven, ConnecticutArchitect: Louis Kahn Certain buildings are easy to compare to people because of their appearance. Windows look like eyes; a canopy looks like a mustache. Other buildings evoke not the way people look but the way they are – or, rather, the way we would like them to be, whether “dignified,” “sober,” or even a little bit “crazy.” We are able to characterize buildings in this way because doing so is an essentially human function: learning about people and things, characterizing them, and responding appropriately. 

Library Court Looking Up (Photo Jeremy Kargon)

One building, in particular, is nothing less than an Old Friend: the Yale Center for British Art (YCBA), designed by Louis Kahn and completed in 1977. I first met the building just a few years later, in 1981. After our initial introduction, we became regular companions. For four years, on a weekly basis, I would find a seat in its galleries, or a carrel in its study library. Within its spaces, and with growing familiarity, I learned how architecture can nurture one’s spirit through apparently simple means.
 At first glance, from the exterior, the YCBA’s pewter-colored metal panels, concrete columns, and squat wrestler’s proportions are not much to look at. But from the moment one enters the building, one’s eyes are lifted towards light.

Throughout the YCBA, light is the language with which the building converses – with its paintings, of course, but also with its visitors, like me. My Old Friend is witty and observant; my Old Friend is rigid, too, but accommodating where

YCBA Upper Floor Looking Across (Photo Kargon)

needed. I never tire of the building’s plain oak panels, set in contrast to its sharp-cornered concrete columns. I enjoy touching the brushed satin stainless steel duct-work, suspended unselfconsciously from the building’s exposed structure. I am thrilled by the visual transparency experienced throughout the building, a natural consequence of the building’s grid-based planning. And I am inspired always by the light, filtered through apertures from every direction. The value of friendship is in comfort, of course, and familiarity, but along in delight. 

CBA Exterior, seen facing West

In the decades since I left New Haven, I returned often to spend time with my Old Friend, whose architectural mannerisms I have long since tried to adopt as my own. When I tell my students about the buildings that they’ll one day design, I can give them no better exemplar than Kahn’s Yale Center for British Art, my Old Friend. 

Jeremy Kargon is Associate Professor at Morgan State University’s School of Architecture and Planning. A licensed architect since 1991, he has worked professionally in the US and Israel, the latter for almost a decade. A list of his credentials, professional experience, and publications may be found online HERE

Louis Kahn, 1973 in front of the unfinished Yale building. Institutional Archives, Yale Center for British Art

How Collaboration beats "Go-it-alone" in the National Capital Region and everywhere

A crisis sometimes produces insight and opportunity that didn't emerge during normal times. Some call this forced opportunity. An example of insight and opportunity arising from an emergency is the recently stepped up regional collaboration between Virginia, the District of Columbia and Maryland.

Coordinated executive order: Governor Hogan on 3/3/0/20

An executive order to "stay at home" has been announced in a coordinated fashion by Virginia, the District of Columbia and Maryland on the same day. Maryland's Governor refers to this in his 3/30 press conference as the "the national capital [metropolitan] region", an apt description of Maryland's geography and the connections which are our regions lifeblood.

In all three jurisdictions, “essential” businesses remain open. This includes grocery stores, convenience stores, pharmacies, hardware stores, laundromats and dry cleaners, pet shops and animal services, medical facilities, banks and other financial service providers, gas stations, auto repair shops, bike shops, wireless stores, and , as has been widely mocked, liquor stores.

Baltimore Washington CSA (Census map)

This concerted effort avoids counterproductive effects, such as residents rushing across the nearest border to escape the restrictions.

Coordination also gives the area more standing with the federal government, which, of course, operates within the area.

Last week, the three leaders Larry Hogan, Ralph Northam and D.C. Mayor Muriel Bowser jointly asked President Trump to “provide additional financial support to help our jurisdictions maintain the health and safety of the region and the federal workers who serve the American people.”

Hogan explicitly mentioned the importance of keeping this region healthy and strong, a warning that would also apply in regular times:

The Washington region is where national leaders are actually fighting this battle for the nation, and this region is about to be hit with the virus in the same way that some other major metropolitan areas have been.
We are home to more than 404,000 federal workers in Maryland, D.C., and Virginia. The NIH and FDA are headquartered in Maryland, and these agencies are on the front lines of the battle against the coronavirus. (Governor Hogan)

Governor Northam announces "stay at Home" order on 3/3/0/20

Indeed, Baltimore must be seen in the context of our neighbors, not only when it comes to the emergency response to a pandemic of epic proportions, but also when it comes to travel, work and jobs in everyday life.

The Census has long recognized this and given the area a clunky acronym:   Washington–Baltimore–Arlington, DC–MD–VA–WV–PA Combined Statistical Area (CSA). The 2017 Census estimate puts the Greater Washington CSA's population at 9,764,315, right after Chicagoland's population, below the Los Angeles CSA, and that of the now so heavily stricken New York metro area. It is widely expected that the 2020 census would put our region in the #3 spot nationally.

Mayor Muriel Bowser announces "Stay at Home" order 3/30

The boundaries of CSAs are constantly changing, and are largely determined by commuter flows. Areas are combined into a CSA if they have connections to neighboring areas exceeding 15% of an area’s workforce. 

Transportation is an apt metric to measure interconnection and interdependence. Transportation inherently knows no borders, a fact reflected in the Interstate Commerce Clause of the US Constitution.

Some of the regional transportation connectivity is already obvious in normal conditions: For example, Maryland pays a good portion of WMATA's transit operations due to the many routes they service in Maryland. For the most part, though, Baltimore and DC are governed as two completely different universes and so are Virginia and Maryland, a few collaborative efforts of saving the Chesapeake notwithstanding.

Motorway back-up of 40 miles at Polish border
due to COVID 19 border closing 

"Balkanization" is particularly obvious when traveling the region's commuter rails: Virginia rails take the VRE trains from the South to Union Station in DC, Maryland's take MARC trains to the same station from the north. Both systems wind up on different sections of Union Station The rolling stock of those two trains systems is not compatible. Transfer from one to the other is possible but not coordinated by design, there is no easy time coordinated transfer as it is common in Europe's ICE train system where connecting trains usually wait on the other side of the same platform with a coordinated departure time. Of course, both rail systems also need different tickets, have different franchise agreements with the track owning railroads, are maintained in different facilities and governed by different agencies. In short, VRE is from Venus and MARC is from Mars.

In a future collaboration the VRE and the MARC service should be integrated, share rolling stock and maintenance, MARC should extend its trains into downtown DC to the current VRE station at L'Enfant Plaza (a bill to study this passed in the MD Legislature this session).  A focus on improving Amtrak and commuter rail should replace distractions such as Maglev and Hyperloop. Express buses should connect the two metro areas beyond the single WMATA bus which currently serves BWI. The entire region should introduce a single integrated fare card that can be used on all systems in the entire CSA.

The situation is not much better on the CSA's roads: The BW Parkway is a lifeline between the DC area and the Baltimore area, just as the name implies, but management of this lifeline resides in four different hands: in the departments of transportation of DC, the federal government, the State of Maryland and the City of Baltimore. One can tell by the condition of the pavement, the design standards and the appearance of the artery. The CSA's roadways are managed by the DOTs  of Maryland, Virginia, the District of Columbia, the City of Baltimore and 37 counties. Complete street standards should be coordinated among the jurisdictions and Maryland's road heavy investment strategy should be balanced by a metro-wide more transit friendly transportation plan.

The region's population will continue to grow. This in itself should be a strong motivation for collaboration. Not only DC is bursting at the seams, the suburban areas are also rapidly running out of developable land which doesn't run afoul of sustainability and smart growth goals. Meanwhile the City of Baltimore continues to loose population and has a surplus of land, roadways and buildings. It is patently obvious that regional collaboration represents a win-win compared to a competition of each jurisdiction against the other.

French patient readied for airlift across the border to Germany

The COVID19 crisis also demonstrates what has been already evident in the climate crisis: Where the federal government wobbles, the States and local government can and will pick up the slack, especially if they work together. In the case of climate change, a compact of 12 states on the east coast have initiated carbon trading for power plants and will soon initiate carbon trading for the transportation sector (TCI).

The corona crisis shows that the initial instinct of walling yourself off is short-sighted and eventually not only ineffective but even counter-productive, wether it is for an individual person, a jurisdiction, a state, or a country.

COVID19 teaches with brutal urgency that competing over scarce protective gear in the marketplace is not the way to go. It kills people instead. The Darwinian approach of "my jurisdiction first" is not a practical and even less a sustainable answer in an age where everyone depends on many others.  US governors now routinely coordinate their response to the health crisis. Health professionals from many states have jumped to the aid of New York hospitals.

Solidarity has also replaced the "me first" approach of  in Europe after initially closing the borders within the Euro (Shengen) zone in a misguided  survival of the fittest instinct which was followed by chaos with 18 hour waits at check-points threatening the vital supply lines. Openness defines the EU, and is a matter of survival in this crisis. In a complete reversal, some less hard hit countries now airlift ICU patients from struggling countries with air force hospital planes and helicopters for treatment in their own not yet overloaded facilities.

Flying intensive care unit ready to airlift corona patients out of Bergmo

Slowly it becomes clear: Against our first instincts, what this crisis teaches is that we don't need to close our borders and make everything ourselves but that we need to continue openness and collaboration, even when we need to keep personal distance from each other.

Collaboration, compassion and offering what our place can do best to others while importing what others can do best from others continues to be the better way to go.

Transferred to the greater Baltimore-Washington area, this insight means that everyone has to realize that collaboration is a win-win now and in the future when social tension will rise, especially in Baltimore with its many pre-existing conditions.

Baltimore tends to think of itself as a special case, as an island that needs to heal and provide equity "from within". The "Baltimoreans first" instinct is strong, even among those who otherwise would never use the same language as the President. This notion expresses itself in the demand that all department heads need to not only live within the city but should also be recruited from within. Same for police officers, construction companies, and, according to some, any company that receives any tax dollar support. Some go as far as suggesting that bringing wealthier people in as new residents would be unwanted gentrification, no matter how much it may strengthen the tax base. The more Baltimore shrinks in size and in terms of its own local economy, the less such an approach will be successful, as well intended as it may be. This insight will be especially urgent in the economic fall-out that will follow the virus.

The collaboration in regulation, transportation, resources and trade which we see now, needs to be continued and institutionalized for the future. On any scale, collaboration is the most effective way to conquer challenges. Many challenges remain if and when this particular virus will have subsided, many new challenges will emerge. The current "forced opportunity" of learning how to overcome the "go it alone" impulse is too big to pass.

Klaus Philipsen, FAIA

Do executive emergency powers threaten democracy?

“The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted.”

― James Madison

In a time of crisis even "free" democratic societies err on the side of decisive executive action in order to control the situation. This is inevitable and comes with the territory.

But the extent in which essential pillars of a democratic society have been knocked off their foundations through the most draconian measures imaginable, all decreed from a single executive office is unprecedented. Moreover, it has been on display in democracies around the world.

Governance in a time of emergency

But if Madison is right, even in an unprecedented emergency some checks and balances need to remain in place, on the federal, state and local levels for democracy to survive.

“While we recognise the severity of the current health crisis and acknowledge that the use of emergency powers is allowed by international law in response to significant threats, we urgently remind states that any emergency responses to the coronavirus must be proportionate, necessary and non-discriminatory” (UN experts, quoted in the Independent)

The federal level 

This is currently especially evident on the federal level, not only because the less than sure footed demeanor of the Commander in Chief during this crisis,  but because it is in the Oval Office where the most power resides even in normal times. The State of Emergency declarations concentrate even more power in one hand. That this is an election year adds urgency to the democracy question for our country in particular.

The concern for democracy should not be confused with introducing even more politics into the crisis than there is already. Politics certainly can have adverse effects to the well being of people: In the flu epidemic of 1918 quarantine rules were relaxed shortly before the November election. The result was an increase in infections and deaths. Isolation measures had to be brought back and were less efficient afterwards. (NYT)

But politics in the original meaning of the word can also be good: It is a good thing, that the $2 trillion relief deal was not pushed through without discussion. This type of expenditure will define our nation's future for some time to come. It can't be taken lightly, no matter how urgent the situation. It is a clear case where expediency needs to be paired with prudence. Luckily House and senate are still functioning and could negotiate a package the way it is intended by the constitution. But how much longer?

Governance by disaster team: Conflicting messages

The average age of the U.S. Senate is 61, and Democratic leadership of the House of Representatives is between the ages of 79 and 80, well within the ranges most vulnerable to Covid-19. Experts fear that the virus could incapacitate Congress when legislative oversight of the executive branch is needed most. (The Intercept)

The State level

The situation is even more dire  in our State of Maryland where the legislature has only a 90 days session which was even shorter this year. While the Governor deserves high marks for his decisive action and clear messaging, it is of concern that our peculiar way of running the State legislature is providing an imbalance and essentially the lack of deliberation beyond an executive crisis team.

State governance by decree: MD Governor Hogan widely praised for
a decisive even handed tone

There is no easy answer to this but is is disconcerting that all of our delegates and senators are limited to sending out newsletters via email which are limited to repeating whatever the State has decided as the current action.

There is currently no provision on how the legislature can convene other than in person, something that was rightly deemed as too risky in the confined chambers in the historic State House. So the already short session was cut even shorter. It doesn't appear that any alternative, creative way of utilizing the many delegates and senators as an additional resource in managing this crisis is actively discussed or investigated in Maryland. An inquiry to senate President Ferguson remained unanswered to date.

All things considered, given the leadership we currently see in the State, living in Maryland is a better option than in many other states. Still, given that this crisis is not short and geographically limited like a hurricane or flood, efforts should be made to maintain as many checks and balances as possible. With an Assembly hibernating until the next season, there is no balance.


The local level

On the local level, Baltimore City Council and the Mayor have closed City Hall to public access and increased broadcasts instead. This, too is prudent but potentially in conflict with open meeting laws. Deliberations without public input is problematic. But technology isn't always a savior. Secure and reliable access is by no means a given. Following the deliberations via Baltimore's Charm TV is now hit and miss, probably due to the high number of using this tool which, of course, doesn't allow public participation.

Mayor Young declares State of Emergency

Technology solutions

Would it be possible to meet in different quarters where seating could accommodate social distancing? The German Parliament with over 600 seats adjusted temporarily their charter to allow for a vote on their $800 billion relief package this week with two seats left open between members. The European Parliament will  will hold an extraordinary plenary on 26.03 using a distant voting system.

The crisis is not just a threat to the lives and livelihoods of people across the globe but serves also a severe stress test for democracy. (The Brussels Times)

Utah and Pennsylvania are establishing remote or proxy voting now. Could there be public committee deliberations via internet platforms?

“As lawmakers fall sick, legislative sessions across the country are being cut short out of legitimate fear of the pandemic. This crisis will only worsen. It’s naive to assume that it will be possible to reconvene in a few weeks, so legislatures must make necessary changes to procedures now.” ,” David Segal, executive director of Demand Progress and a former Rhode Island state representative. Demand Progress is a a non profit seeking to protect the democratic character of the internet — and wield it to make government accountable and contest concentrated corporate power.

On Tuesday this week Congress held a a mock remote hearing via Zoom as Marci Harris, a co-organizer reported on Medium, "kicking the tires of available technology" she says. An official report will be issued to Congress shortly. Harris is CEO of PopVox, an online platform for legislative information and former congressional staffer.

Online voting or transmission of sensitive information in committee meetings is considered by many experts as risky and open to the danger of hacking. As far as voting goes, voting by mail appears to be the best option, as long as isolation is required. Maryland may have to go that route for the already postponed primaries. 

Regardless of the various technical solutions, a true democracy cannot hand over all power without being able to make the balancing elements of democracy work.

Klaus Philipsen, FAIA

Coronavirus could be used by authoritarian leaders as excuse to undermine democracy, experts warn (The Independent, UK)

What is essential?

Governor Hogan expanded the list of businesses which have to close. The deadline for these additional closures is  this Monday 5pm; a long list for essential businesses that are exempted. This and the general shut down of the international economy begs the question, what is essential?

MTA bus on Tuesday 3/23/20

My neighbor got a new roof on his house this Sunday right when everybody was asked to stay at home. The grocery stores are open. The Construction site next to my office is humming with backhoes and earth-movers, a steady line of trucks is hauling the spoils away. Amazon and UPS vans ply the neighborhoods, ambulances race through city streets, police cruisers patrol the streets and respond to shootings that never seems to end. On trash day the truck shows up like clock-work, and recycling is picked up as well. The mail is delivered every day, an army of food delivery gig workers has joined the army of Uber and Lyft drivers, and the print edition of the daily paper still arrives as well. Parking lots are full in front of Panera bread because people now pick up their sandwiches, lines form at drive through restaurant windows. Many planes still ply the skies.

In an effort to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, PLEASE USE TRANSIT FOR ESSENTIAL TRAVEL ONLY. Essential travel means taking trips to work, hospitals, health care providers, pharmacies, grocery stores, banks, food distribution centers, schools, to provide care for family members, and other similar destinations. By reducing unnecessary travel, transit becomes safer for those who depend on it, especially essential healthcare workers, and for those who operate it. MDOT MTA encourages all employers to consider telework options where possible (MTA Website)

In short, no, the world hasn't shut down. Instead, the US, Australia and Europe have divided society neatly into three factions:

• Those who are essential workers and who keep on working, often harder than before. Certainly doctors, nurses, nursing home care workers, police, fire and grocery clerks come to mind.
• Those who can't afford not to work. They keep working until their supplies will run out, their companies shut down or their tools break and can't be fixed or replaced. Construction workers, home repair trades and fast food come to mind. This group is especially large in the US where there is no guaranteed sick leave and people can be fired at will and on short notice. Of course some of those workers have been forced out of work by now.  
• Those who can afford to work from home or shelter in place because the first two groups keep doing what they are doing. This is mostly the large group of office workers, some doing essential work, others less so. (Banking, insurances, teachers, and some government work comes to mind)

The late response, the lack of tracking and testing and the large second group will make the medical need curve here quite steep. 

Additionally, a set up like the the three groups above can only work for a few weeks, but not very long.

Essential and non-essential is a matter of definition, and over a longer period a lot of work that looks non-essential will become essential. If a roof starts to leak above the shelter-in-place family, a roofer becomes quickly essential. When the delivery truck breaks down and needs repair auto-parts become essential. More so if the vehicle is an ambulance. 

To be clear, before one can address the long term supply problems, the current supply disaster in the front line medical sector needs to be resolved. What happens when supplies run dry and the the tension between needs and supplies becomes too big is already on full display. 

• Those masks, gowns, shields and ventilators are missing because they were primarily made in China and the industrial center of that country has been largely shut down for months. 
• Domestic production of medications and medical equipment seems to be weak. The notion that car companies can begin to make ventilators or masks sounds very heroic and nice, but that transformation is likely quite difficult in a highly specialized economy 
• In a demand and supply driven market economy, there is no structure in place to direct where products should go if need and not highest price is the new criterion. The recent competition between the federal and state governments over existing supplies is telling. A New York doctor, desperate for supplies, found a box of the urgently needed masks at Target. He was shocked.

Online photos on a Baltimore NextDoor post show what happens when those supply lines break: Volunteer community members making protective gears in a large warehouse with plexiglass and glue guns, reportedly for Johns Hopkins (An online sign-up on signupgenius.com seems to confirm this).  A furniture company is already making N95 masks and put the method online. Possibly some things can be made with 3-D printers and production codes be shared to rural or non industrialized ares. These are promising quick responses. It remains to be seen if they are sufficient. 

All this shows that the line of products that are deemed essential will quickly grow larger and larger. In a modern economy everything is connected with everything and only a few sectors can be safely shut down without others being negatively affected over time. (Casinos come to mind). 

While architects, for example, can mostly work from home-offices and still be productive, their chain of production ends in construction which cannot be done remotely at all. It is obvious, that in the end the final link in this chain will bring the entire chain down. At the latest, when construction runs out of supplies or, earlier, when job sites can't get the necessary inspections and permits because government workers issuing those do not show up in the field.

To keep the currently non essential supply lines flowing, the medical supply lines need to be seriously ramped up. Only if a society tests and protects on a broad scale can it keep supplies coming for the items that are needed to keep even sheltered people safe. Any discussion to relax the stay home orders for all who who are not essential is irresponsible as long as the medical supplies are not working. There is no way to neatly divide populations that quarantine and those who don't. 

The second huge quagmire is the ability of people to survive without a paycheck, affecting all those working in the sectors that have shut down or where gig work has dried up. An economy can only be geared up again, if companies still have their workers. That is what Congress is debating and what Maryland started to address as well. Governor Hogan announced a roughly $175 million to assist small businesses and workers affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. More information and resources about these programs is available here.
The problem of aiding the economy is greatly increased by the fact that we are a country that lives hand-to mouth with vast amounts of private and public debt and no rainy day funds to speak of. Under those circumstance it is entirely reasonable that Congress wouldn't simply rubber-stamp a $2 trillion relief package, especially if it contains many openings for corporate bail outs.

While it is true that employees need employers to be employed, the Republican argument that, therefore, employers need to be bailed out, seems logical but is faulty, nevertheless. Given the experiences of the financial crash, where corporate bail out resulted in a further tilt in the already lopsided income distribution, another push towards inequity cannot be afforded. There is much to be said for trying a different approach this time. 

Germany came through the financial crash fairly strong by protecting their workers from being laid off through "Kurzarbeit", i.e. part-time employment below the regular 40 hr workweek. They also used the boom years to pay down public debt and the private savings rate remained high in spite of the zero interest rates. 

Imagine a system where larger employers cover their ongoing cost obligations by borrowing money at the current incredibly low rates and take advantage of the unprecedented steps the Fed is taking  while employees cover their obligations by augmenting reduced income with a federal guaranteed basic income. That seems like a promising approach in this crisis.

The guaranteed basic income has been discussed for years. It is time to employ it now. Whoever doesn't like the name can call it unemployment payments, it doesn't matter. But these payments have to come, and they have to come fast. They are an investment into the economy of this summer. 

While we are still a couple of weeks away from the peak in the medical crisis, it is now high time to plan ahead and address the supply crisis and the disruptions from a crashing economy that will come next. 

The experiences of the financial crash of 2008 should not be the blueprint this time without the necessary corrections. Regardless which path economists and politicians ultimately take, it should be clear that this current crisis presents an opportunity to correct past mistakes and existing systemic flaws. 

Once this medical crisis subsides and the economy sputters back to life, society should have set the switches in such a manner that we are better equipped to stare down the huge income disparities, the climate crisis and the next wave of whatever pandemic, which may very well be another wave of COVID19.

1.5 trillion dollars can't be spent repeatedly. It is important to get it right the first time around. 

Klaus Philipsen, FAIA

updated 3/23/20

Baltimore on the other side of the tunnel

The long lasting boom period of the last 10 or so years has given many cities a leg up. Construction boomed, population grew, crime rates and unemployment sank, taxes flowed and cash reserves were built or used to make the cities shine. The age of cities was certain and welcome.

As we all know, Baltimore was different, an outlier really. Sure, our poverty rate also decreased somewhat , and construction was booming  as well, albeit to a lesser extent; but population continued to decrease, trash was piling up and crime keeps going up. We tumbled from one leadership calamity to another (Mayor, police Commissioner, DOT Director, IT Director and more). As a result trust in our local government is at an all time low. To make things worse, one cannot really say that the State has our back, even though one has to give the Governor credit for his current handling of the corona crisis. Now we are caught flatfooted. 

West Baltimore food desert

Overall, the pandemic of unprecedented dimensions as far as anybody alive can remember hits us largely unprepared, all the way down to the level of an inexplicably absent emergency response director. An economic storm of yet unknown proportions will follow.

To recognize this particular Baltimore condition doesn't add comfort but it allows for a realistic perspective when we are trying to peer through the long tunnel ahead.

In spite of the high level of uncertainty that comes with a situation that is unique, attempts must be made to decipher what may lie ahead on the other side of the tunnel and prepare for it. In the case of Baltimore, it should be clear that the instinctive desire to return back to the status quo ante is not desirable and would be a great mistake. The crisis must be used as an opportunity for a major reset. That it coincides with elections makes a reset more possible and provides also a political dimension.

To be sure, the world is facing a global problem and Baltimore is only a tiny speck in this larger picture.  What makes Baltimore's seemingly unique and exceptional status interesting is the fact that on a national scale it isn't all that exceptional upon closer inspection. Baltimore exhibits all the flaws that weaken the country as a whole, in some cases just more so. That is true for the mistrust in leadership, the general unwillingness to prepare for difficult times, the failure to use the boom to build reserves and the lack of a cohesive and commonly shared vision of where the journey should go. Even on an international scale, Baltimore is everywhere.

Applied to the corona crisis, precisely what makes our country more vulnerable than some others in this pandemic is in full display in Baltimore: namely that the country is divided, that government has been diminished for decades, that rich and poor have drifted way too far apart and that too many people have been left behind without health insurance, good care, good education, good qualification, good transportation or good access to the internet. Too many guns, too many people in prison. A volatile mix of deficiencies. In all this Baltimore is a petri dish for the country, for what may lie ahead and for what the challenges will be in the recovery . In short, Baltimore presents a great case study for where and why our society is so vulnerable to threats, whether it is an actual or a virtual virus pandemic or climate change. No longer is it enough to rest on past glory, neither in Baltimore nor in the nation. Yes, Baltimore has one of the bests hospitals in the world, yes Baltimore was a pioneer in railroads and streetcars but this is of no use when the poor don't have access to health care or when we let our transit infrastructure crumble. Yes, the US has the strongest and best equipped military and is a leader in IT, but it is of no help when modern wars are no longer fought with jets and tanks or when IT is beginning to hollow out our democracy or worse, is open to being hijacked by those who want to weaken us.

I am not trying to make this about politics or the campaign and its candidates, but I will mention  Bernie Sanders, nevertheless, to make a bigger point. He has been speaking of our societal challenges and systemic shortcomings in all his speeches. Lately voters have flocked to safer shores, the disruptions that Sander's policies would bring seemed just too large. Taking on oil, pharma, hospitals, the car industry and the oligarchs of all ilks all at once in a "revolution", is seen by very many as too risky, as something that "the economy" could not survive. It is hard not to observe that the disruptions we now face in light of corona crisis are bigger than anything that Sanders has ever considered. While this crisis may not have been predictable (many did just that, though), the next big crisis, climate change is and was entirely predictable and here, too, we have to admit that the US is ill prepared.

Baltimore is so mired in basic survival questions, that climate change barely registers. Who can grouse over beef consumption when one lives in a food desert, who about recycling when trash is piling up all around, who about eroded streams and floods when some neighborhoods drown in blood, who about CO2 emissions of SUVs when the bus is routinely late?

We know that economic justice and environmental justice are not mutually exclusive but dependent on each other as Mr Sanders says or also Baltimore's local zero waste initiative. But in the daily grind of Baltimore politics, it still comes down to an either or. Unfortunately similar mechanics are now at work in the epidemic as well. Many just don't have the luxury to shelter in place. Sticking with usual patterns, it is predictable that those on the bottom rungs of the economy will fare not only worse in the epidemic but also in the recovery afterwards. A special emphasis has to be placed on not sticking with the usual patterns: Not to bail out the largest corporations first, not to give in to the best paid lobbyists and not to build future demand on hand-outs to those who already have.

Construction of affordable housing on Eutaw Street
How much longer can they work?

Some say that if the money to dampen the financial crisis would have gone to local businesses and local banks as well as the consumers directly damaged by these financial institutions instead of going to exactly those banks who caused the collapse in the first place, we would have a much more robust economy now. Iceland comes to mind, a tiny country for sure, but a big player in the financial melt-down of 2008, now a country much stronger and more resilient then before 2008.

When planning the medicine for this economic meltdown we witness now, the lessons from 2008 must be heeded.  What is happening now is bigger than what happened then. Everything everyone in almost every country has to do now for health and life, is the opposite of what makes capitalism thrive:
Shrinkage instead of growth , restraint instead of consumption, shelter-in-place instead of hyper-mobility, local checkpoints instead of global connectivity. Factories, stores and offices are shutting down in rapid order across the world. Not for two weeks, some probably indefinitely. The nose dive of the stock market is just a a visible gauge for that.

Seen positively: This calculated shut down of the economy in favor of human life is a choice most countries have made by now. It is a unique achievement of global civilization over barbarism. Of course, there will soon come a point where the two lines of approach will intersect, i.e. when the supply chain will  be so disrupted that shortages of essential goods will occur. In the area of medical supplies made in China this is already the case in some places. Baltimore's still existent manufacturing and the many new maker start-ups and edible community gardens and farms haven't reached a scale yet to offset the need for long distance travel of goods, but they point into the right direction. So does Baltimore Planning's identification of local resilience hubs in a Resilience Plan. (In a sign of lack of resilience, the website for the new Disaster Preparedness Plan of 2018 is shut down)

The shutdown of  General Motors, Boeing, Volkswagen or Apple may look most impressive, but they won't be hit hardest. It will be the millions of small businesses that are threatened in their existence and with them their employees  who can't recover when their workplace will never re-open. "Too big to fail" cannot be the guideline again. Instead it should be, how does a future resilient economy need to be structured? Already the government is in using federal resources to prop up the oil price in support of the more expensive domestic oil production from unsustainable shale. Instead, this should be the time to assist the many small businesses including start-ups of the future green economy and also transfer money directly to vulnerable affected populations. This is one point in the federal discussion right now that goes in the right direction. Stopping all evictions in Baltimore was a good step in the right direction.

Crisis can bring people together, if not physically, then at least mentally. But that isn't always what happens. Italians applauding their first responders and singing local songs on their balconies appears to be unattainable to us, not only for our lack of balconies. Baltimore can't even stop shooting in this emergency. This week, in the midst of our collective anxieties, a bus driver was shot by an irate rider. Yesterday someone shot with a semi automatic into a group of people in central Baltimore. We like to think of ourselves as coming together in crisis and often we do. But Baltimore is an indication that there is no guarantee for that.

A population that was sharply divided in "good" times can become even more sharply divided during an extended lock-down when real hardship will set in for many. How to support the large vulnerable populations in Baltimore's infamous "black butterfly" during this shut-down has to be carefully planned right now. Many do just that, but the lack of a basic social safety net to catch everyone makes this much more difficult here than in, say, Norway or, yes, China.

Without drastic measures, the divide will be even bigger on the other side of the epidemic when the battle will be about the economy, supplies and education. Politicians like to say that we are "all in this together." While this may be generally true for our bodies and their defenselessness against a new virus,  it is certainly not true in the way the crisis affects different populations.

Where more affluent citizens will hunker down in their single family homes with yards, poorer renters often live in cramped quarters with shared stairways, hallways, elevators and some shared air conditioning vents. Where those who own a car can avoid close contact and still travel a distance to get to work, relatives, the grocery store or even medical testing, those who don't have a car need to use transit which will be increasingly sparse and even less reliable. Where better educated white collar workers may be able to work from home, others will pay the closure of workplaces with a total loss of income. Where more affluent households have broadband and plenty of computers and smart phones to stay in touch, vulnerable communities on the other side of the digital divide will remain cut off from online education and vital information. Where the insured can count on their doctors giving advice, the uninsured will continue to try to go to the always crowded emergency rooms. Where well paying jobs provide sick-leave, those in fast food or many other service professions will be tempted to go to work anyway since their employers dock their pay when they are sick. (An issue that Congress supposedly addressed, but details are still murky).

When everything that used to be true becomes unglued in a matter of days, social cohesion becomes a lifeline, a common set of values, essential. In the absence of it, even facts are in dispute, conspiracy theories thrive, and eventually even social unrest must be considered, should we get into a situation where health care will be overburdened and rationed even more than it already. Vulnerable populations then won't have access to the resources to protect themselves. The local and presidential elections could give the situation additional volatility.

Many in the always struggling vulnerable communities live day by day, "one day at a time", unable to think beyond the challenges further ahead, often in debt, mostly without savings. This understandable take on the world can't be a guide when it comes to "social distancing" over the long haul, i.e actual survival.

This seems to be the overall predicament, laden with risk but also with another chance for getting it right. This time! I will try to use this space as a place for a look ahead beyond what the daily news discuss, carried together from many sources around the world. There won't be easy answers. Yet, trying to decipher what the future will hold several months from now and what steps could be taken to make society more resilient is absolutely essential to master the many additional challenges that, no doubt, will lie ahead. The long view should also inform the elections from Mayor of Baltimore to President. We owe a better course to ourselves and even more to our children and grandchildren.

Klaus Philipsen, FAIA

Behave in such a way that a reasonable generalization of your action to a universal rule will lead to a benefit to a generic person under this universal rule. Always treat others as ends and not means. (Immanuel Kant, the Categorical Imperative)