"Uplift Baltimore" - What to make of the Baker Plan?

It shouldn't be overly surprising that a candidate running for Governor of Maryland would spend a few thoughts on Maryland's largest city, which by many accounts, is still the anchor of its economy. Even the current Governor, who seeks his voter base more in rural Maryland than in urban Baltimore, has confessed many times how much he likes the city and wants to support it.

Democratic contenders for Governor Hogan's job (Image WP)

With current Prince George's County Executive Rushern Baker the first contender running against Governor Hogan has produced a document solely dealing with Baltimore. Its title, "Uplift Baltimore", already suggests, that the gubernatorial hopeful doesn't see the city with rosy glasses. But Baker doesn't promote charity, instead his plan states:

A stronger Baltimore means less stress on the infrastructure of the
surrounding counties. A stronger Baltimore will improve the state’s ability to compete for job-creating and growth-focused industries. A stronger Baltimore can save the state millions while improving our environmental, public health, education, criminal justice, housing, and all quality-of-life rankings. Every Marylander should be rooting for Baltimore’s success because her success benefits all of us. 

Indeed, an insight one would like to see more frequently expressed. The 7-page plan enumerates a number of cash infusions the city received between 2003 and 2013 (not clear why these years instead of more recent data) tallying $2.4 billion federal "aid", $1.8 billion stimulus money and another $1.8 billion in State "aid". Without knowing how those numbers were calculated or how they compare with Baker's own county for the same period, they certainly further cement the notion that Baltimore City is a net receiver, a view widely held in Maryland.  This view stands in contrast to the idea that the Baltimore region is still Maryland's economic powerhouse, most recently proffered again by GBC's annual "state of the region" document.

Baker's plan for the region's center city minces no words:

Baltimore region education levels and peer comparison
(GBC regional report)

...the Baker Administration will undertake a financial impact and efficiency assessment of federal, state, local, and non-profit dollars spent to remedy specific maladies such as homelessness, crime, housing, and education issues with specific focuses on neighborhoods hit hardest by crime, health, housing, and employment challenges. The study(ies) will examine best practices for achieving outcomes, avoiding duplication of effort, eschewing administrative inefficiencies, and provide guidance on how the state, city, and interested nonprofits can better achieve goals by improving collaboration but also assure zero waste of either city or state dollars. The taxpayers must be confident every penny spent will be aimed at the goals and not lost to bad policy, poor planning, duplication of effort, or bureaucratic inefficiency.

Clearly, anyone running for statewide office talking about Baltimore needs to first make clear that it isn't the intention to throw money down a rabbit hole. Yet the above quote isn't very subtle in suggesting that waste is or has been present in Baltimore. Baker whose obvious goal is to woe Baltimore voters has to walk a fine line between being supportive and condescending. Just in case, his paper has a few nice words for Baltimore's mayor as well:

Baltimore Mayor Pugh’s recent designation of a dozen neighborhoods as target areas for the federal government's Opportunity Zones tax overhaul program along with her plan to raise a billion dollars in bonds to support investment in struggling neighborhoods bodes well for a partnership with the Baker Administration.

Baker's PG tested Transforming Neighborhoods Initiative (TNI) has resulted in his departments and agencies paying more attention to vulnerable communities, such as Langley Park. However, his administration was subsequently accused of having dropped that community from the program, a charge Baker denies.

Regional homeownership has dropped between 1998 and 2017
(GBC regional report)

The plan also proposes additional pathways to homeownership tying homes to financial apprenticeship programs and life skills and homeownership training programs, suggestions that have been tried in Baltimore before.  It includes lease to own models in which renters become owners after seven years. The pathways involving public funds, non-profits and training are aiming to protect renters and homeowners against displacement.

The Baker Administration simply wants to protect current residents from the ills of major demographic shifts which often results when only private developers participate in housing rehabilitation and rents rise resulting in mass displacement. 

Baltimore has long had first-time homebuyer incentive programs that effectively provided homes for low income residents. But from Sandtown to Park Heights there have never been enough funds to provide sufficiently many affordable quality homes to really reduce the affordable housing crisis or to shift the paradigm in disinvested neighborhoods. Subsidy program have especially struggled to transition from expensive write downs to market driven investments on a scale that is needed to make a true dent on the stock of vacant houses. Real economically sustainable transformation requires rents or home prices that pay back the cost of rehabilitation or new construction.

The Baltimore region  is fourth last among 25 peers  in population
growth (GBC report)

Addressing the conundrum of attracting young new residents when city schools perform poorly, Baker points to the fact that there are now more childless households than with children and seems to suggest that Baltimore should focus on those demographics:

Hidden in the statistics regarding young people and childless rate among the college educated is a targeted opportunity for reversing the city’s population loss without significantly stressing her resources.

To attract the childless young, the Baker plan includes a list of incentives from sales tax holidays in targeted Enterprise Zones to relocation incentives given to folks that come here from high price markets such as New York and San Francisco. Influx of "millenials" seems to be working already, what isn't working is to retain residents to stem the ongoing flight out of the city.

The plan emphasizes over and over that it would vet and discuss all the suggestions and doesn't intend to impose anything. Overall the plan is detailed enough to include practical proposals, although the most convincing elements seem to come from the era in which cities mostly courted the Creative Class, a strategy that its own inventor, Richard Florida, has recently disavowed thanks to the effects it had on existing vulnerable populations. Still, the goal of population growth remains worthy since the City will hardly be able to bootstrap itself out of the downward spiral of sinking resources that come from a sinking population.

Baltimore area transportation troubles: Sinking transit ridership,
rising congestion (GBC regional report) 

The most memorable sentence in the paper comes towards the end:

Not since Robert Irsay snuck the Colts out of town in the thick of night has one individual done more to betray Baltimore then when Governor Hogan killed both the much-needed Red Line Light Rail funding and the State Center redevelopment projects.

 Baker promises nothing less than that with him as Governor "Baltimore's Red Line will be revived" and that he "will work with the Mayor, Comptroller, the Community and stakeholders to revisit and reignite" also the State Center project. He doesn't mention how the $900 million federal funds that Hogan rejected would find their way back to Baltimore.

At a minimum, Baker's Baltimore plan will force the other candidates to comes up with ideas for Baltimore as well, a welcome outcome given the tendency in some quarters to write Maryland's largest city off as a basket case. The plan proves that the candidate with the help of his Baltimore running mate Elizabeth Embry has a good grasp on some of Baltimore's issues and can provide a good foundation for discussion. Unfortunately, Baker didn't bother to discuss his ideas with the Mayor before making them public.

Klaus Philipsen, FAIA

Baltimore SUN: With Baltimore votes up for grabs, Maryland gubernatorial candidate Baker issues plan for city