How COVID 19 stresses transit riders and the MTA alike

Rarely come the breaking points of a society into as sharp a focus as in the current pandemic. Far from being the  equal opportunity threat to everyone one might superficially consider a virus against which all humans are unprotected, COVID 19 hits the most vulnerable especially hard. Transit is like a magnifying glass for this condition.

MTA bus operator with mask. (Photo: MTA)

On a transit bus what is good for the health of essential employees riding the bus to work is not necessarily good for bus operators. The health of the homeless using the bus for shelter adds another layer of complexity.

The passengers: Being a bus riders is never all that much fun, what with buses being late, not showing up at all or breaking down en route? In the pandemic all of that happens more frequently, especially when the entire Eastern Bus "division' had to temporarily shut down because COVID had been detected in the facility. Fewer buses, fewer drivers (Absent due to quarantining), less seating, and longer commute times where the result, adding insult to injury for essential front line workers riding to their job in hospitals, nursing homes, government offices, construction sites or grocery stores who have to go to work during a pandemic.

Public transportation agencies are playing a critical role during the COVID-19 pandemic response, and they will continue to do so as we navigate the road to economic and social recovery throughout our nation. Public transit agencies have worked tirelessly to provide bus and rail service so that essential workers can get to hospitals, pharmacies, and grocery stores during the COVID-19 emergency, underscoring how essential it is to keep public transit running. (APTA Brochure)

"Essential Travel Only" (Photo: Philipsen) 

Being an operator is never an easy job, but it, too got harder in the pandemic when initially drivers got in close contact with everyone boarding the bus through the front door. Many got infected and several even died in the pursuit of this vital front line work. Rear door boarding was implemented to protect drivers but leaves regular bus riders on their own in the back.

Lastly, the homeless have long become a familiar sight on transit. Everyone using the subway in a major city knows the folks performing, begging or holding speeches on the trains.  In the pandemic being homeless is extra hard, in Baltimore where there is only one subway line, riding the bus becomes inviting, especially right now when rear door boarding has eliminated the ticket check by the operator.

In short, in the time of the pandemic, transit, always an explosive topic, has become an even more volatile topic. Below a few notes from drivers and riders posted on the Baltimore Transit Facebook page:

So the red 3666 decided to not stop at university hospital because the driver saw the homeless ppl and didn’t stop but the driver left ppl who really needed that bus

And now I'm sitting here for another 34 min waiting for another Bus. Its so frustrating 

I’m telling you they have the buses on a Saturday schedule which means less buses and they will be crowded because those MF’S won’t stay in the house and just let essential people ride. Once it’s a few people standing up that social distancing kicks in and the bus won’t stop. I’m sorry you’re going through that but until everything goes back to normal this will continue to happen 

everyday last week I had a run that I was suppose to get relieved on out of 5 days I got a relief on 1 day. 2 of the 5 days I pulled the bus in to the yard. The other 2 days I just stayed out and did another round trip by that time it was 10:00pm and was time for me to go home. Everyone is doing something diffrent everyday most of us don't have a set schedule

short staffed a lot are still out quarantined. I just don’t understand why they would do a Saturday schedule when all the methodone clinics are still open and they are crowding the buses meanwhile real essential employees can’t get on, it’s pathetic

Masks required on transit in every state

Better off folks sheltering at home may wonder why the buses are even operating in a time of social distancing. Indeed, transit ridership has gone down between 60-80% across systems all across the nation. Still, the question why transit at all overlooks the facts on the ground in Baltimore and most metro areas: How about this: Those staying home benefit from the many workers that go to work every day, no matter how much some jobs put them at risk. or this: Baltimore is a city where in some large neighborhoods more than half of the households have no car. Those workers have no other way to commute than the bus, and residents without a car have no other way to get necessities. In short, transit remains a vital lifeline, "Stay at Home" orders or not.

After initially running the full schedule the MTA responded to reduced ridership by thinning out service to Saturday service levels, no matter that the remaining riders needed to adhere to workday work hours. Seeing congestion, the MTA added more runs to the Saturday schedule on heavily frequented routes. MTA currently collects hardly any fares, so whatever operations add to the deficit that all transit agencies have anyway. The BBJ reported that MTA will receive $385 million federal COVID funds. The BBJ stated that MTA's total 2019 operating bugdet was $881 million.  The extra money may help for a bit, but with a huge backlog in repairs and reduced income from the transportation trust fund, MTA's financial future is in jeopardy, no matter how thin the current service.

Homeless on a MTA bus

Operators and riders dread the thinned schedule: Small crowds of workers, the down and out and the "invincibles who don't care about masks or take them off once inside the bus. They all greet the drivers at bus stops sometimes forcing operators to pass without stopping or do jump out of their seats to call for order in the back of the bus.  Some drivers call all non essential riders "joy riders", a term that doesn't sit well with homeless advocates.

The transit conundrum under COVID is coming to a head in many cities across the world, but it is particularly acute where poverty and homelessness are exceptionally high, as in Baltimore. Tension between a driver and an irate passenger in once instance escalated into an operator being shot in the early days of COVID operations.

 Some bus drivers let ppl get on without a mask!!! And dont say nothin to them at all. (Baltimore Transit)

Seriously does any of the MTA Top Officials ride the Bus . You cant tell me that you trying to keep your Operators or Riders safe😣. First we had to wait for the Blue. And we didnt even made it down to Eastern Avenue leaving Bayview and the Bus was allready crowded. I think its a Slap in the Face for everybody who risking there Life's rightnow and can't get to Work or can't get Home. And on Top of it I'm Shoulder to Shoulder with other People.And no I'm not blaming the Operators . They have to breathe the same Air than we do. Sorry I had to vent. (Baltimore Transit Facebook page)

There is no easy answer. Pre-existing problems won't be solved in a pandemic, more likely they become bigger and more pronounced. MTA had to quarantine drivers and shut down entire "divisions" (the garages from where the buses get dispatched) but is now back to running all garages. Many solutions that may work elsewhere will exacerbate fault lines that have been in place in Baltimore for a long time.

• Police action, for example: Should the police clear out the homeless from subways and buses as New York City began to do? The MTA has their own police force. But wouldn't this just heighten the distrust and smack of the old policing tactics that targeted poor black men in particular?
• Or identification of essential workers via an app like it is done in China. Should the State issue "essential Worker IDs" that would have to be checked by MTA staff at bus stops or in the bus? Wouldn't that disadvantage those without smart phones in a time when the issuance of physical cards would be impossible? And what about other users who go shopping or to see a doctor?
• Should essential workers simply accept the heightened risk that comes from crowding and unhygienic conditions on the bus and live with prolonged commute times? Isn't that the problem to begin with, namely that our transit commute times are too long and the buses to unreliable?
• Should the MTA send more buses out until everyone who wants to ride can find a safe distance to other riders? That would be an obvious solution if the MTA would have endless funding or enough drivers ready to roll, even when sick leave began to rise, in part due to COVID?
• Should front doors be re-opened but cash transactions be eliminated so no interaction with the driver is needed? For that the driver enclosure would have to be extended to provide better protection, a costly undertaking keeping even more buses out of circulation?

Sooo. I'm on my way to work. On the bus. The bus line is running on. SATURDAY schedule. But...ALL the people going to work are on their regular schedule.meaning we still have to be at work on a weekday schedule dozens of passengers are cramped on a bus. With NOOOO. Possible choice to social distance. My second bus doesnt run for another hour. (Baltimore Transit Facebook page)

None of these solutions seem to be particularly practical or convincing. Maybe a combination of some of these may work, especially considering that solutions will be needed for some time to come.

Whatever is done, some will see it as an extension of the inequity already permeating society and of the unfair practices of enforcing laws on the back of those who are already vulnerable. But sometimes one needs to think outside the box:

A creative suggestion regarding the homeless came from a bus operator: He proposed the MTA should run a few of the articulated longer buses along routes that are especially important to the homeless, thus taking pressure off the regular routes. He took his cue from the Baltimore practice of using buses as warm up or cooling spaces during Artscape in the summer or the Monument Lighting in the winter.

Though you may encounter a few “bad apples”, for the most part homeless riders aren’t a problem. They genuinely want to get on, feel safe as transit is much safer than the streets, and go to sleep. That’s it. Create A “Transit Care Bus”- Use an artic if you have them; they will allow safe spacing. Layover The Bus At HotSpots and Run The Route To Other Hot Spots.- If you dont know where the homeless hot spots are, ask your operators, they’ll know off hand. Periodically run the route through those corridors picking up patrons and promoting the resource at the same time. (Bus Operator 1198 on Medium)

The media are full of stories on how we have to imagine a world in which Corona will dictate all of our steps. Transit is front and center in these discussions, along with elevators in buildings, classrooms in schools, restaurants and offices, all the places that don't make 6' distancing easy.

Those who never liked transit and prefer the private car, take advantage of virologists attributing the catastrophe in New York to the city's subway.

Those who always thought people should drive less take the cleaner air and the empty city streets as an opportunity to propagate a batter distribution of streetscape for pedestrians, buses and bikes.

Driver protection zone (Chicago)

And those who depend on transit simply hope that service will soon get back to normal frequencies and operations.

Which of these scenarios will come to pass? As it is the case for almost everything else, the future of transit is deeply immersed in the fog of the ongoing battle against the virus.  Large cities will never work well without transit in the same way as tall buildings won't work without elevators or international travel will require planes.

As with everything else, though, there are hidden opportunities. "Never let a good crisis go to waste", Delegate Robbyn Lewis quoted Winston Churchill in her effort towards are more equitable and safer transportation system in Baltimore. In that sense cities may come out of this crisis with a heightened awareness of how important functional transit really is to keep things going.

Klaus Philipsen, FAIA

The Transit app is free and available on Apple and Android devices. To learn more, visit https://www.mta.maryland.gov/transit. For the latest Coronavirus services updates, visit https://www.mta.maryland.gov/coronavirus.

The draft Regional Plan: A better future for Maryland Transit?

Once upon a time, before a small virus began to take the world hostage, there was a time when people cared about Baltimore transit so much they wanted to make it better. Enlightened law makers passed bills in Annapolis in the hope to create a better future for Baltimore's buses, trains and mobility services.

Transit during COVID: "Essential Travel Only"
on North Avenue (Photo: Philipsen)

One bill that passed in 2018 demanded the creation of a Regional Transit Plan by October 2020. (I reported about it in this space). The bill was amended in 2019. In 2020 a slew of transit oriented  bills fell victim to the virus and the abbreviation of the session this year. (A list of 2020 transit bills here).  The transit supportive lawmakers banded together and have become a strong voice in Annapolis. As Delegate Lierman explained:

[About the re-election of Governor Hogan] “That reality, coupled with the recognition that there was no long-term plan for expanding transit around the state and the role of single-occupancy vehicles in climate change, really propelled us to start thinking bigger about pushing a pro-transit agenda.” (Brooke Lierman, sponsor of various transit bills about the new Transit caucus in the legislature)

This article is about the progress on the regional Transit Plan and the state of other transit bills in Maryland.

A Regional Transit Plan could be an amazing thing, given that the last plan from 2002 was essentially wiped out when the Red Line was cancelled. Since 2015 there has been no plan for the region's transit beyond the Baltimore bus revamp that brought us "Baltimore Link". No plan exists that would show any expansion or any improvements of any of the transit modes except a state of good repair for what's already on the ground. And even that wasn't funded.

Goals and Objectives from the Regional Transit
Plan (RTP)

The Central Maryland Regional Transit Plan (RTP) is a plan for improving public transportation in the region over the next 25 years.(From the Plan intro)

Hard to believe, but the pandemic did not wipe out the work on the RTP. Instead, it continued in spite of social distancing and MTA being in the cross-hairs  of  the conundrum of running transit transit for essential workers and protect riders and operators at the same time.

A draft Regional Plan was published for comment in April. The due date for the final plan is October, comments on the draft plan can be submitted until June 18 by going online and commenting directly inside the plan. Transit advocates greeted the draft with optimism:

As the COVID-19 crisis shines a light on the vital importance of public transit service in the Baltimore region, a newly released regional transit plan provides an historic opportunity to make much needed improvements that have long been identified by riders, advocates, employers, and other regional stakeholders. The draft plan advances the process of building consensus around a bold vision for Baltimore’s transit system and advocates are preparing public comments to strengthen it further.

The Central Maryland Regional Transit Plan is the first comprehensive transit plan for the region in a generation. Advocates are pushing for a plan that provides meaningful changes in people's lives and hope to see implementation of a strong plan begin as early as this fall, starting with feasibility studies planned by MTA and BMC for several priority transit corridors.(Press release of a coalition of transit advocates collaborating under the programmatic moniker: Get Maryland Moving. Disclosure: The author is a participant).

State of poor repair: Stranded MTA Bus on the Blue Route Photo: Ph)

Back when the upcoming mayoral race in Baltimore City still gathered a fair amount of attention, candidates for Mayor started discussing the need for a regional transit authority instead of a State run one. Having the State run transit in a major metro area is quite an anomaly in the United States.  MTA is by no means small potatoes, visible in the figures Administrator Kevin Quinn recites in his welcome letter inside the draft plan, after all MTA serves a region of 2,100 square miles, covering over 2.55 million residents, and 1.24 million jobs:

The Maryland Department of Transportation Maryland Transit Administration(MDOT MTA) has been providing transit services for the State for over 50years since its inception as the Metropolitan Transit Authority in 1969. Today,MDOT MTA operates the 12th largest multimodal transit system in the countrywith over 250,000 daily riders, 6 transit modes, and paratransit service, whileproviding support to locally operated transit systems throughout Maryland. (Kevin Quinn, MTA Administrator).

However, the potential transfer of transit in the metro area from the state to a regional authority is not part of this RTP, which is not surprising since the plan was penned by MTA. The matter of a local agency will be studied by a working group of the legislators.

Fixed route improvements for Baltimore: From the RTP

So what is in the 67 page draft plan?  There are six pages of introduction, four pages why transit matters, three pages of goals and objectives, 21 pages of strategies, 14 pages of network improvements and 9 pages of a description of the region's transit corridors. Finally, at the end three pages with next steps.

The plan was not conceived to be the typical wish-list of projects that politicians usually express to MDOT for future planning. Instead the plan is supposed to be based on an analysis of transit needs and the deficiencies of the current system in which the discrepancy between these two translates into in a plan of improvement.

The actual exercise to date wasn't as clear-cut. Although the advisory regional RTP Committee consisting of representatives of the region got a pretty unvarnished description of transit's current shortcomings when MTA Administrator Quinn presented at the first session, goals and objectives were defined in a much loftier language than a simple reversal of the shortcomings would have delivered.

MARC train in the recently refurbished Halethorpe station (Penn Line)
(Photo: Elvert Barnes)

The objectives are: Faster more reliable transit, growing ridership, faster more reliable and more equitable service, better job access and "prepare for the future". There has been some analysis and a discussion of strategies before projects would be listed. That is good, because many shortcomings do not stem from "hardware" or the lack of  transit routes but from operational and non physical aspects.

Part of the findings in the draft plan deal with delays from the current cash payment system, GPS tracking capabilities of transit vehicles in real time, dedicated bus lanes and cooperation with employers. Another part identified issues beyond the control of MTA, many having to do with land use. For example job growth in areas not served by transit and lack of development where transit already is in place. Lastly, there is the obvious fact that transit's performance is most important to the most vulnerable populations, the aging, the poor and the people with disabilities. Poor performance, therefore isn't equitable and the best performing modes of the system often doesn't serve the disadvantaged people.
Even the objective of "preparing for the future" isn't as hollow as it sounds: Changes in the workforce and in technology are so rapid, that any plan has to forward looking enough not to be outdated before it has been completed.

The Transit Corridors of the RTP

Finally, the suggested improvements: They range from possible additional commuter routes, the creation of transit hubs where various routes or modes meet to extension of services hours or frequencies on existing systems, consideration of new local and express bus routes and the definition of regional transit corridors in which transit services and land use planning would be bundled and prioritized. The latter have been grouped into "early opportunity", mid-term and long-term. Recommendations include also elements of a traditional projects list including items listed by the BBJ in this manner:

• Realigning the light rail tracks on Howard Street
• Supporting Amtrak in the construction of a new Baltimore and Potomac Tunnel on the MARC Penn Line. A new B&P Tunnel has been in the works for years but does not have funding. The project had an estimated cost of $4.5 billion in 2017.
• Removing at-grade crossings on the MARC Camden Line
• Replacing the West Baltimore Station in coordination with the B&P Tunnel realignment
• Establishing a connection between the MARC Penn and Camden Lines
• a possible extension of MARC train service to L’Enfant Plaza in Washington, D.C., and Northern Virginia.

Lastly, and much in keeping with demands form transit advocates, the RTP addresses the matter of  measures of progress, tools that are supposed to allow the public to hold the agency's feet to the fire by measuring progress from year to year under metrics such as speed, reliability, ridership, transit accessible jobs and mode split. Only equity has no proper metric, except to measure ADA accessibility.

The RTP has goals and objectives, and some moderate targets. The question is what it would take to reach those targets. There is no modeling that would indicate how much each proposed measure would contribute towards the targets. Not even the baselines are given, nor are there comparisons to other systems. The plan has a 215 year horizon with updates every 5 years. Therefore, targets should be set for 5 year increments. This issue will certainly be one of the comments of transit advocates.

At no point does the RTP get as concise as the 2002 plan, which resulted in a system map that looked like the one depicting the DC metro system. The new plan doesn't have a substitute for the Red Line nor does it reinstate the Red Line, as much as many transit advocates would want to see just that. But the RTP isn't as limited as the old plan either. Its focus isn't just rail in recognition that the majority of riders are bus riders.  The RTP is not constrained by cost and it doesn't carry any cost for the suggested measures.

In light of the all encompassing world wide, biggest possible crash global societies currently experience, readers that made it to this point may be consumed by the question: Who cares about transit? Won't transit be hard hit by social distancing and the reverberating fears that may persist long after a vaccine has been found for this virus? Certainly, transit riderships have fallen precipitously during the pandemic. But the crisis has also shown, that metropolitan areas and big cities cannot exist without it. Buses, trains and subways continued to shuttle essential workers to and from their jobs, no matter that the workers in the buses and trains not only risked their lives at their jobs but also in transit. everyone, including those safely at home benefit from transit, especially in difficult times. Even though the virus has accentuated the division between those who are transit dependent and those who have a choice even more, it surely hasn't proven transit superfluous. The crisis, however, further highlighted current vulnerabilities and weaknesses that left many essential worker riders livid about the service.

And as far as having lost the Red Line: Montgomery and Princes George's Counties which were allowed to move forward with the construction on the Purple Line may not be as lucky at it seemed. After innumerable delays two of their key contractors threatened to walk off the job (Washington Business Journal), potentially providing a deadly blow to the much touted Private Partnership Project (P3). Tye project is under construction since August 2017 and is with a final price tag of $5.6 billion  the largest public-private partnership (P3) transit development in North America today. It is owned by the MDOT MTA. The Purple Line Transit Partners (PLTP) represents the private-sector partner to design, build, operate and maintain the light-rail system. The 36-year agreement includes a six-year design and construction period followed by a 30-year operations and maintenance period. 

Purple Line Construction (Photo: Purple Line Transit Constructors)

P3’s are not the easy fix that some believe they are. The main umbrella contract remains intact but could be in jeopardy. The lesson:
Government and private businesses dance to very different pipers when it comes to schedule and cost.

The future of our regional transit is under as many question marks as ever. Like so much in this pandemic, the weaker the baseline when the crisis hits, the worse the outcome afterwards.

Klaus Philipsen, FAIA

Corrected and refined for statements about targets. 5/5/20

Related articles about Baltimore Transit on this blog:

The region's transit is in a hole

MTA: 60% of regional residents don't have access to transit. Will a new regional transit plan change that?

The high stakes for the new Regional Transit Plan

Three year after the Red Line was killed the city is still reeling from the blow

What a new study tells us about the trajectory of Baltimore Neighborhoods

Before the current topic of public health wiped every other topic off the radar screen, one of Baltimore's favorite subjects of discussion was how Baltimore's neighborhoods are doing. The five year anniversary of the Freddie Grey unrest is a good time to revisit the question.

Was there revival or gentrification or was there mostly a steady spread of decay? Depending on one's own daily experience, residents would attest to the one or the other.  One side would see flourishing neighborhoods with restaurants, bars, cafes and sprouting roof decks where a few years back only modest narrow formstone worker houses dominated the scene. The others pointed to once stately brownstones going to waste, surrounded by other vacant buildings, weeds, to corner stores selling liquor through plexiglass dividers.  Both impressions were part of the same reality that is Baltimore. From those close up views, it is hard to gain a larger perspective.

Revitalization and investment on Greenmount Ave (photo: Philipsen)

Now a study by Alan Mallach, senior fellow at the Center for Community Progress, released by the Abell Foundation this month, aims to shed light on what is going on, zip code by zip code, but set into the context of a citywide scale. The trends the report shows are based on a broad set of data collected between 2000- and 2017. From Abell's website:

This Abell Report mines data from 2000 to 2017 to better understand how the racial, ethnic, and socioeconomic composition of Baltimore's neighborhoods have changed.

Even though the pandemic will upend everything, a careful study of what happened in those seventeen years is in order to prepare for what is to come, especially now.

Middle neighborhoods in decline

One thing is clear: On balance, Baltimore has lost population between in those seventeen years, not as drastically as in the decade before, but significant losses of  over 27,000 residents, or 4% of its population, according to  census estimates, losses that have brought Baltimore already below the 600,000 mark, the smallest population in a century.

But contrary to popular believe, the matter isn't simply one of people packing up and leaving to greener pastures, usually in the surrounding suburbs. The reality is that people also move to Baltimore. While, on balance more people move out than in, the taxes that Baltimore collected have gone up in recent years.  This means that the ones moving in were more affluent than those moving out. This wouldn't necessarily be a bad thing, given the city's high poverty rate and below state  median income rate. But as almost everything in Baltimore, the in and out migration is also a matter mired in race. Or as the Abell Report put it:

Population gains and losses (red is loss, blue is gain)

Since 2000, black neighborhoods have been much more likely to decline economically, and white neighborhoods have been more likely to rise.[..] The greatest loss of black population in Baltimore is coming from predominately black low- and moderate-income neighborhoods (median income below citywide median, or below $47,000 in 2017). Since 2000, these neighborhoods have lost over 45,000 people, or roughly 20% of their total population. [..]

Baltimore has seen solid economic growth since 2000. The city has added nearly 20,000 jobs. Household incomes in Baltimore have grown at a rate nearly 50% greater than the national rate over that period; as a result, Baltimore’s median household income has risen from 72% to 81% of the national median. Income growth, however, has been concentrated among white households, whose incomes have grown at more than double the rate of black households 

 The common narrative reflecting these trends is that affluent white people are displacing poor black people. The word used in this context: gentrification. But the reality is, once again, more complicated. Gentrification does not occur uniformly in neighborhoods across the city, in fact, it rarely occurs in poor black neighborhoods at all. As a result, displacement in the gentrifying communities in Baltimore (Defined as: (1) increase in household incomes; (2) increase
in sales prices; and (3) increase in educational attainment) occurs predominantly on the backs of poor white residents. Again the Abell Report:

Thriving Remington. Stable old houses and new
development (Photo Philipsen)

For every loss of a black household in a gentrifying area, there was a net loss of more than five low-income white households, whether as a result of households moving elsewhere, mortality, or other reasons.

Baltimore's loss of population in Middle Neighborhoods is a troubling sign of the slow degradation of the American middle class that is going on across the nation. There is nationawide a stronger and stronger bifurcation of society with very many poor people at the bottom and fewer and fewer people in the middle, with a few super rich at the top.  The report says about this problem:

Foremost, in our opinion, is the challenge of reversing the decline of the city’s struggling largely black moderate- and middle-income neighborhoods. This is both a physical and an economic problem. [...]This calls for a determined effort to improve the quality of life in these neighborhoods—a term that encompasses physical environment, public safety, quality education, and more. This means not only making them better places for everyone whatever their income and education, but also turning them into places where people who have the means to choose among neighborhoods, and can afford to move either to other parts of the city or its suburbs, will choose to stay or move into them.

Continued abandonment in West Baltimore
(Photo Philipsen)

The good news is, that Planning Director Chris Ryer has his eyes firmly set on those "middle neighborhoods" and the aim to improve quality of life there. In a 2019 interview with the American Planning Association he said in response to the question what the  the Planning Department’s approach to community development is:

It’s what we would call a “middle neighborhood strategy”: neighborhoods that are not wealthy, not in good shape, but not highly distressed. Fifty percent of Baltimore’s population live in these middle neighborhoods —  not highly distressed, but not highly successful. They could go either way. This is where the community development world plays now, because they don't typically have the resources for the distressed neighborhoods. We know in middle neighborhoods, our target areas, there are certain corridors that matter a lot: Greenmount Avenue in Waverly or Pennsylvania Avenue or any arterial in middle neighborhoods. They’re typically a mixture of residential and commercial, one of which is not really functioning in the market. (Chris Ryer, Planning Director)

The "middle neighborhoods" Ryer notes may not be the same Mallach describes as "struggling largely black moderate- and middle-income neighborhoods."  Baltimore's neighborhood policies have long oscillated from need based strategies (Mayor Schmoke targeting Sandtown in the 1990s) to "working from strength" (Mayor O'Malley). The cities latest targeted investment zones try a middle ground by working from anchor institutions and an equity perspective. Mallach's report may provide fuel for the strength versus need debate once again.

The Abell analysis also looked at home prices and real estate values. Not surprisingly, these, too are deeply reflective of race and the history of institutional racism such as redlining. As has been discussed in this space before, the effects of redlining continue to this day. About 30% of all City census tracts fall into deeply segregated and mostly previously redlined neighborhoods. In the words of the report:

Moving up mostly in white neighborhoods

Price trends are strongly driven by the racial composition of the neighborhood. Three out of five largely white census tracts saw house prices increase by more than 50% in constant dollars, compared to two out of five racially mixed, and only one out of 10 largely black tracts. Conversely, house prices declined by 20% or more in nearly half of all predominately black tracts, compared to less than one out of 12 predominately white tracts. The median house in predominately black moderate-income neighborhoods lost nearly one-third of its value in constant dollars between 2000 and 2017.

Clearly, neighborhoods with depressed home values are not gentrifying, to the contrary, those are the communities with the biggest population losses. 60,000 residents left deeply distressed areas. About half of them found a home in some middle neighborhoods in Baltimore, especially in the northeast area of the city. The future of the low and moderate income black communities is very uncertain. As Mallach writes:

The upshot is that almost all of Baltimore’s largely black moderate-income neighborhoods, many of which were relatively healthy in 2000, are losing ground, and many are in crisis. Families continue to leave, and household incomes are in sharp decline, while the housing market is on the edge of market failure. While the median house value in these neighborhoods in 2000 was over 80% of the citywide median, it is now below 50%. The number of new buyers is far too low to absorb the supply of housing, the share of investor buyers is far above the citywide average, and vacant housing is becoming endemic in some areas. The future of these neighborhoods is one of the most difficult challenges faced by the city of Baltimore. (Mallach)

It is remarkable that successful revitalization is more prevalent on the east side than on the west side. This probably has to do with how anchor institutions are engaged, how suitable the housing stock is for middle or lower incomes, how much access to transit an area has and how much coordination there is between various non-profits and community organizations. The success of Barclay and Greenmount West is a reflection of all of that.

All slipping black zip codes (light blue) are on the west side.
Yellow is stable, dark blue moving up. Predominantly black
moderate-income neighborhoods account for roughly  75%
of the total loss in black HH in Balto.
                

  

   

The sheer scale of continued disinvestment sets Baltimore apart from cities where gentrification is a much bigger issue. There has been no sign whatsoever that traditionally black neighborhoods would have an influx of affluent buyers who displace existing residents. After the pandemic, it is likely that the divisions and pathologies of Baltimore neighborhoods will be further exacerbated unless the usual market mechanisms can be redirected beyond the fairly small interventions of the past that rarely showed systemic change.

Predictably, almost all the communities that the report describes as gentrifying are entirely located in what has become known as the White L (the spine of the Charles Street corridor and the leg of the waterfront). There is a slight drift towards the west, where Hampden and Remington gentrified from previously working class low and mid income (mostly white) neighborhoods. The report states:

Gentrification in Baltimore is dominated by a single demographic group—young, largely white millennials with college degrees. While they are not the only people moving into the city’s gentrifying tracts, they are the principal driving force of change. Gentrifying tracts have seen their share of college graduates more than triple, while 36% of their residents are aged 25 to 34—double the percentage in the rest of the city. [...]18, or two-thirds, of the 27 gentrifying tracts were predominately white in 2000, five were mixed, and four were predominately black. 

The shrinking black population of Baltimore

The report highlights one bright spot, the transformation of a distressed and disinvested predominantly black community into a healthier and better off community with far less vacant buildings and barely any displacement: Greenmount West and Barclay. The community saw a strong influx of whites, Hispanics and Asians with only a slight reduction in blacks. The secret is that many vacant buildings where rehabbed and filled and many new apartments were built that guaranteed affordability. The resulting diverse community promises to withstand economic downturns in a much more resilient way than a fully segregated community. (see also my past blog article about this area)

I asked Seema Iyer of the Neighborhood Indicators Alliance at the University of Baltimore about the study. After all, drilling down into neighborhoods via data is her everyday business.
She says: " to me it's a real clarion call that we need to focus on the needs of homeowners in those western neighborhood in particular". She draws the following conclusions from the Abell study:

income disparities are defined by race

1) all of the Black neighborhoods that moved downward are on the west side of town. The ones on the east all remained stable.
2) the northeast quadrant seems like a model for what other parts of town can learn from
3) and the gentrifying neighborhoods are all in the center and along the water. It's not just because they are attracting white population, but because they represent the best of urban amenities that the city has to offer. certainly one begets the other, but they are walkable, with lots of cultural amenities, connected to transit as well as highways, have lots of capital investment, etc. (Seema Iyer, Director of the Jacob France Institute and Research Assistant Professor)

A mixed race community on the uptick: Pigtown

Allan Mallach, the author of the Abell study concludes his report with these words:

I recognize the magnitude of the city’s task in addressing its neighborhood challenges. Although the city and its partners have accomplished a great deal in recent years, far more needs to be done. I hope that this analysis, which I believe is the first detailed, factually grounded analysis of the city’s neighborhood conditions and trends, will be a valuable resource in that effort

Baltimore was struggling long after the financial crisis and was the only east coast city that continued to loose population even during the last 12 years of economic recovery. The blow of the pandemic promises to be even stronger. Yet, it also presents an opportunity to calibrate and coordinate the many efforts better. The author may not be entirely right about his study being the first and only detailed factually grounded neighborhood study, but he would certainly be right that city policies to date have not been sufficiently grounded in data. Not that data wouldn't have been collected (they were ever since CitiStat), but they have never been culled and interpreted to devise a comprehensive focused strategy. It is precisely such a strategy that the new mayor needs to develop to pull all his departments and resources in the same direction. In a time of depleted resources that will be even more urgent.

The mayoral election can be a benchmark and begin of a much more evidence based and focused approach in Baltimore than was dominant between 2000 and 2017. Mallach's study provides plenty of food for such a strategy.

Klaus Philipsen. FAIA

all graphis from the Abell report unless otherwise noted

Citywide trends

Baltimore's gentrifying neighborhoods: What do people look for?

Buildings as friends: #1 Architect J. Kargon, MSU

“We shape our buildings, and afterwards, our buildings shape us.” 

Winston Churchill, House of Commons October 28, 1944

About this series:

Architecture is "background noise" for most, consisting of buildings at the periphery of our vision when we drive, of buildings which we enter for work without looking up, of places that keep us dry, warm or cool per our specifications for all stations of our life. In our home, at a place of worship or when we are ready to board a train or plane.

Even when we get sick, we will wind up in a building, architecture even less on our mind. But one never knows: My then 17 year old

Louis Kahn Yale art museum (see also below): A good friend currently closed

daughter looked up at the lay in ceiling and its fluorescents from a gurney when she was rolled from an ambulance into the hospital hallway in a medical emergency; she could not resist telling her architect father : "The architect did not think of that perspective, daddy, did he"? Adding: "it is ugly".

In fact, emergencies sharpen our senses for impressions we usually take for granted. The bird song, the rising sun, the beauty of the low sun grazing wads of fog hovering over the meadows,  the "face" of building, we wake up to these observations when we are dropped from our daily routines. We are rubbing our eyes and begin to look at the world like a newborn: in wonder. It is then, when we realize, a building can be a good friend and provide familiarity, comfort and protection.

Modern Americans spend more time inside than outside, an aspect that gives buildings heightened importance. In the age of celebrities, some buildings have taken on celebrity status, too: the Louvre in Paris has always been an attraction for its art, but it was Ian Pei's glass pyramid that gained celebrity status and provided the Louvre's iconic brand. The Sidney Opera is more famous for its building than its music. The New York and the Bilbao Guggenheim are known more for their iconic buildings than for the art they contain. Some celebrity buildings have received nicknames like the Gherkin in London for its shape.

We notice what we had when we loose it: WTC New York

The shock of 9-11 came in part from two iconic buildings having been wiped off New York's skyline. The absence of what many considered bland architecture made New Yorkers realize what they had meant for the skyline.

Right now, its not the buildings that are absent, but we are absent from them. Not being able to see them, we begin to miss them.

Naturally, architects have a special relationship to buildings. So now, when architects are struggling with keeping their projects or jobs going from make-shift home offices while also worrying like everyone else about their and their family health, I wondered whether the beauty of architecture can be comfort, and whether the experience of friendship with a building can be shared. Whether an attempt of describing the relationship to a building could be useful introspection in a time of a major reset of values with yet uncertain outcomes.

So I sent to my architect friends a fundamental question: Which building is your best friend? Which piece of architecture do you like most, which influenced you? I am hoping for a series of uplifting articles and images about the beauty of architecture and its importance too the human spirit in the sense that Vetruvius described over 2000 years ago:

Thus man, who, in addition to the senses which other animals enjoy in common with him, is gifted by nature with such powers of thought and understanding, that no subject is too difficult for his apprehension, and the brute creation are subject to him from his superiority of intellect, proceeded by degrees to a knowledge of the other arts and sciences, and passed from a savage state of life to one of civilization. (Vitruvius: De Architectura: Book II).

Cover of "De Architectura" Latin edition of the Vetruvius Books by Augustus Rode

The responses will be published here on this blog as they trickle in.

The first article came overnight from Morgan University architecture professor Jeremy Kargon who sent his homage of the Louis Kahn designed Yale Center for British Art Publications, a building on the campus of his alma mater, the Yale University in New Haven, CT.

The building was completed  after Kahn’s unexpected death at Penn Station in New York in 1974, 23 years after its neighbor, The Yale University Art Gallery was finished. It is an icon of modern architecture and was refurbished in 2016:

Library Court: All images courtesy of Yale Center for British Art
except as noted

Jeremy Kargon:

The Yale Center for British Art (1977)
New Haven, ConnecticutArchitect: Louis Kahn Certain buildings are easy to compare to people because of their appearance. Windows look like eyes; a canopy looks like a mustache. Other buildings evoke not the way people look but the way they are – or, rather, the way we would like them to be, whether “dignified,” “sober,” or even a little bit “crazy.” We are able to characterize buildings in this way because doing so is an essentially human function: learning about people and things, characterizing them, and responding appropriately. 

Library Court Looking Up (Photo Jeremy Kargon)

One building, in particular, is nothing less than an Old Friend: the Yale Center for British Art (YCBA), designed by Louis Kahn and completed in 1977. I first met the building just a few years later, in 1981. After our initial introduction, we became regular companions. For four years, on a weekly basis, I would find a seat in its galleries, or a carrel in its study library. Within its spaces, and with growing familiarity, I learned how architecture can nurture one’s spirit through apparently simple means.
 At first glance, from the exterior, the YCBA’s pewter-colored metal panels, concrete columns, and squat wrestler’s proportions are not much to look at. But from the moment one enters the building, one’s eyes are lifted towards light.

Throughout the YCBA, light is the language with which the building converses – with its paintings, of course, but also with its visitors, like me. My Old Friend is witty and observant; my Old Friend is rigid, too, but accommodating where

YCBA Upper Floor Looking Across (Photo Kargon)

needed. I never tire of the building’s plain oak panels, set in contrast to its sharp-cornered concrete columns. I enjoy touching the brushed satin stainless steel duct-work, suspended unselfconsciously from the building’s exposed structure. I am thrilled by the visual transparency experienced throughout the building, a natural consequence of the building’s grid-based planning. And I am inspired always by the light, filtered through apertures from every direction. The value of friendship is in comfort, of course, and familiarity, but along in delight. 

CBA Exterior, seen facing West

In the decades since I left New Haven, I returned often to spend time with my Old Friend, whose architectural mannerisms I have long since tried to adopt as my own. When I tell my students about the buildings that they’ll one day design, I can give them no better exemplar than Kahn’s Yale Center for British Art, my Old Friend. 

Jeremy Kargon is Associate Professor at Morgan State University’s School of Architecture and Planning. A licensed architect since 1991, he has worked professionally in the US and Israel, the latter for almost a decade. A list of his credentials, professional experience, and publications may be found online HERE

Louis Kahn, 1973 in front of the unfinished Yale building. Institutional Archives, Yale Center for British Art